Birmingham vs Middlesbrough — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsEFLYouTubeMatch Events
- 24′Birmingham, yellow card:Foul
- 45′Middlesbrough, goal:0–1assist
- Half-time0 – 1
- 55′Birmingham, goal:1–1assist
- 59′Birmingham, own goal:2–1Own goal
- 63′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 63′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 71′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 74′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 83′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 86′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 86′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 88′Middlesbrough, goal:2–2
- 88′Birmingham, yellow card:Argument
- 90+1′Birmingham, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 2
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Birmingham
Middlesbrough
Match report
Birmingham share the spoils with Middlesbrough after late Malanda leveller
Birmingham and Middlesbrough drew 2-2 in a Championship round eight fixture at St. Andrew's Stadium, with the visitors twice taking the lead only to be pegged back on each occasion. The result leaves Birmingham 11th on 11 points from eight games, while Middlesbrough sit third with 15 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Maximilian Arfsten put Middlesbrough ahead on the stroke of half-time, finishing an Amario Cozier-Duberry assist to send the visitors in 1-0 up at the break. Birmingham responded quickly after the interval as Liam Millar, set up by Jhon Solis, levelled in the 55th minute, and within four minutes Birmingham led when Riley McGree turned the ball into his own net.
That advantage held until deep into the second half, when Adilson Malanda struck in the 88th minute to complete the comeback and secure a share of the points for Middlesbrough. Birmingham had the better of possession and edged the corner count, but Middlesbrough matched them shot for shot as the match swung repeatedly in the closing stages.
Arfsten opened the scoring for Middlesbrough just before half-time and finished with a rating of 7.9, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Birmingham controlled the ball for 57 percent of the match, yet could not turn that dominance into victory.
Birmingham and Middlesbrough drew 2–2 (half-time 0–1).
Birmingham met Middlesbrough in the Championship (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Saturday, 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC at St. Andrew's Stadium. Referee: David Webb.
Team pages: Birmingham · Middlesbrough · Championship
Key moments
- 45' Goal: Max Arfsten (assist: Amario Cozier-Duberry) — 0–1
- 55' Goal: Liam Millar (assist: Jhon Solis) — 1–1
- 59' Goal (own goal): Riley McGree — 2–1
- 88' Goal: Adilson Malanda — 2–2
Starting line-ups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
Middlesbrough (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Birmingham 31%, the draw 32%, Middlesbrough 37%. It finished Birmingham 2–2 Middlesbrough.
Middlesbrough's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Middlesbrough are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus their control of the ball on top give Middlesbrough the lean. The draw at 32% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Middlesbrough at 37%?
Middlesbrough sit 89 points higher on our strength rating — 1500 to 1589. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 33.0% of 10,648 such games. Middlesbrough sit -0.40 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.3% of 1,376 games, vs 29.2% for visitors finishing normally. Middlesbrough hold 14 more possession points (60 to 46 in recent games) across a 89-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,693 such games where the class table expected 41.2%. The 300 most similar past games finished 37–29–34.
Why only 37%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 37% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 32% and Birmingham at 31%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Birmingham win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,116. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. The control factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
In our recorded league results, Middlesbrough are winless in their last 18 away games: 7 draws and 11 defeats. The run began on 28 August 2016. Last recorded away league win: 21 August 2016 — Sunderland 1–2 Middlesbrough. Latest recorded away league result: 21 May 2017 — Liverpool 3–0 Middlesbrough. Across 13,685 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 25.8%, compared with 24.9% expected from team strength. Middlesbrough have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Birmingham vs Middlesbrough final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Birmingham 2–2 Middlesbrough. Explore more on the Birmingham and Middlesbrough team pages or the Championship page.