Burgos vs 11.09.26 18:303 – 1Full Time
AD Ceuta FC — Segunda División: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Burgos come from behind to sink bottom side Ceuta 3-1
Burgos beat AD Ceuta FC 3-1 in Segunda División matchday 5, recovering from an early deficit to move to within touching distance of the promotion places. Carlos Hernández put the visitors ahead after 14 minutes, finishing off an assist from Kuki, but Burgos were level within six minutes through Alberto Dadie, set up by Jon Karrikaburu.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The sides went in level at 1-1 at the interval, but Burgos took control after the break. Karrikaburu turned provider into scorer three minutes into the second half, converting a David González assist to make it 2-1. Ceuta could not find a way back, and their afternoon worsened in the 81st minute when Redru turned into his own net to complete the scoring at 3-1.
Burgos dominated the second half territorially and finished with 12 shots to Ceuta's seven, while also winning seven corners to their opponents' one. The result lifted Sergio Francisco's side to third in the table on eight points from five games, while José Juan Romero's Ceuta remain without a win, sitting bottom of the division with none.
Karrikaburu was directly involved in two of Burgos's three goals, scoring once and setting up Dadie's equaliser, and finished with the highest rating on the pitch at 8.12.
Burgos held a clear edge in corners, winning seven to Ceuta's solitary one, underlining their control for much of the contest.
Burgos beat AD Ceuta FC 3–1 (half-time 1–1).
Burgos met AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Friday, 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Team pages: Burgos · AD Ceuta FC · Segunda División
Key moments
- 14' Goal: Carlos Hernández (assist: Kuki) — 0–1
- 20' Goal: Alberto Dadie (assist: Jon Karrikaburu) — 1–1
- 48' Goal: Jon Karrikaburu (assist: David González) — 2–1
- 81' Goal (own goal): Redru — 3–1
Starting line-ups
Burgos (4-4-2)
AD Ceuta FC (4-3-3)
- 1 Pedro López
- 3 José Matos
- 14 Yann Bodiger
- 6 Carlos Hernández
- 16 Redru
- 17 Mawuli Mensah
- 32 Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
- 8 Kuki
- 7 Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
- 29 Omar Sadik
- 19 Edgar Sevikyan
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Burgos 53%, the draw 29%, AD Ceuta FC 18%. It finished Burgos 3–1 AD Ceuta FC.
Burgos' rating edge, but the draw is in play — Burgos are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Burgos' 53%. The draw at 29% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Burgos at 53%?
Burgos sit 138 points higher on our strength rating — 1628 to 1490. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,794 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 58–27–15.
Why only 53%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Burgos's column. Across 11,040 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the AD Ceuta FC win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,199. The goals environment adds 3.2 points to the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Burgos scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,851 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Burgos are unbeaten in their last 14 league games at home (8 wins, 6 draws), a run going back to December 2025. Rolling home runs look imposing but sides on a 6+ run won 56.3% of 13,595 games vs 54.5% class-expected — and in our walked test the rating already carried it, as it did for the season-long record. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Segunda División fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Burgos 3–1 AD Ceuta FC. Explore more on the Burgos and AD Ceuta FC team pages or the Segunda División page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Burgos beat AD Ceuta FC 3–1 (half-time 1–1).
›Who scored in Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Carlos Hernández (14') for AD Ceuta FC; Alberto Dadie (20') for Burgos; Jon Karrikaburu (48') for Burgos; Redru (81') (own goal) for Burgos.
›Where can I watch Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Burgos 3–1 AD Ceuta FC are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Burgos and AD Ceuta FC?
Burgos and AD Ceuta FC have met 2 times — 0 wins for Burgos, 1 win for AD Ceuta FC and 1 draw.