Match preview
Dijon host Metz in Ligue 2 with one point between ninth and tenth
Matchday 8 of Ligue 2 brings Metz to Stade Gaston-Gérard, where Dijon will be looking to build on a recent upturn. Baptiste Ridira's side sit tenth with nine points from seven games, one behind their visitors in the table.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Dijon arrive having won their last two matches, taking a 3-2 home victory over Laval and then winning 2-1 away at Annecy. Before that came a 1-1 draw at Boulogne and a 3-2 home defeat by Saint Etienne, so their games have tended to be open and eventful.
Metz, managed by L. Holtz, are ninth on 10 points from seven. Their last five matches have brought one win, three draws and one defeat: a 2-2 draw with Saint Etienne at home was preceded by a 1-0 loss at RED Star FC 93. The one win in that run was a 4-1 home victory over Rodez on 5 September.
Across their last 5 meetings, Dijon won 1, Metz won 1, with 3 draws. The most recent meeting was Dijon 0–0 Metz on 18 February 2023. Dijon's latest win in this sample was Metz 1–2 Dijon on 27 August 2022. Metz's latest win in this sample was Dijon 1–5 Metz on 2 May 2021.
Dijon have won their last two league matches, while Metz have won only one of their last five, a 4-1 home victory over Rodez.
Dijon meet Metz in the Ligue 2 (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade Gaston-Gérard. Referee: Marc Bollengier.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Dijon 42% · Draw 28% · Metz 30%
Home advantage gives Dijon a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1466 to 1497, the usual home advantage is what puts Dijon in front at 42%, even though the rating leans very slightly towards Metz. The draw sits at 28%, starting from the usual 27% between sides this level and nudged up because both teams' own recent games average 2.7 goals.
Why Dijon in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1466 to 1497. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,809 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%).
Why only 42%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 28% and Metz at 30%.
Why the draw at 28%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,308. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
In our recorded league results, Metz are winless in their last 14 away games: 6 draws and 8 defeats. The run began on 23 November 2025. Last recorded away league win: 2 November 2025 — Nantes 0–2 Metz. Latest recorded away league result: 14 September 2026 — RED Star FC 93 1–0 Metz. Across 13,749 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 25.6%, compared with 25.0% expected from team strength.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Dijon vs Metz, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ligue 2 fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Dijon and Metz team pages or the Ligue 2 page.