1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBundesligaYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 13′1899 Hoffenheim, goal:1–0assist
- 34′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 45+4′1899 Hoffenheim, VAR review:Penalty cancelled
- Half-time1 – 0
- 48′VfB Stuttgart, goal:1–1
- 55′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- 63′1899 Hoffenheim, yellow card:Argument
- 65′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 65′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 67′1899 Hoffenheim, goal:2–1assist
- 69′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- 69′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- 81′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 81′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 82′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- 83′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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1899 Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart
Match report
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart — the facts
1899 Hoffenheim beat VfB Stuttgart 2–1 (half-time 1–0).
1899 Hoffenheim met VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 3). Kick-off was Saturday, 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC at SNP Arena. Referee: Sven Jablonski.
Team pages: 1899 Hoffenheim · VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 13' Goal: Adam Hložek (assist: Bambasé Conté) — 1–0
- 48' Goal: Maximilian Mittelstädt — 1–1 · Watch Maximilian Mittelstädt's goal video (48')
- 67' Goal: Adam Hložek (assist: Adam Daghim) — 2–1 · Watch Adam Hložek's goal video (67')
Starting line-ups
1899 Hoffenheim (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Oliver Baumann (c)
- 39 Mats Rots
- 21 Albian Hajdari
- 5 Ozan Kabak
- 34 Vladimír Coufal
- 18 Wouter Burger
- 7 Leon Avdullahu
- 14 Adam Daghim
- 10 Adam Hložek
- 20 Bambasé Conté
- 19 Tim Lemperle
VfB Stuttgart (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave 1899 Hoffenheim 31%, the draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart 42%. It finished 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart.
VfB Stuttgart's rating edge outweighs 1899 Hoffenheim's home ground — VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives VfB Stuttgart the lean. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why VfB Stuttgart at 42%?
VfB Stuttgart sit 181 points higher on our strength rating — 1793 to 1974. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,164 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims 1899 Hoffenheim's column. Across 11,058 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–29–43.
Why only 42%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 42% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and 1899 Hoffenheim at 31%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,178. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
VfB Stuttgart scored +0.46 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,853 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Last five: 1899 Hoffenheim L-W-L-L, VfB Stuttgart L-W-L-W-W — VfB Stuttgart are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.7% of 2206 games when clearly hotter and 42.7% of 4031 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Maximilian Mittelstädt's goal against 1899 Hoffenheim (48').
- Watch Adam Hložek's goal against VfB Stuttgart (67').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart. Explore more on the 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart team pages or the Bundesliga page.