Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBundesligaYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow3 clips- 10′Hamburger SV, yellow card:Foul
- 44′Hamburger SV, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 49′Hamburger SV, goal:2–0assist
- 54′1. FC Köln, yellow card:Foul
- 64′1. FC Köln, substitution:off
- 64′1. FC Köln, substitution:off
- 67′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 67′1. FC Köln, substitution:off
- 77′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 77′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 77′1. FC Köln, yellow card:Foul
- 81′1. FC Köln, substitution:off
- 81′1. FC Köln, substitution:off
- 84′1. FC Köln, yellow card:Foul
- 89′Hamburger SV, yellow card:Foul
- 90′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 90′1. FC Köln, goal:2–1assist
- Full-time2 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Match report
Hamburger SV hold off late Köln fightback to win 2-1
Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Köln 2-1 at the Volksparkstadion in matchday four of the Bundesliga, moving off the foot of the pressure with a result that snapped a run of defeats. The hosts led at the break and doubled their advantage early in the second half before Köln struck back at the death.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Nicolás Capaldo put Hamburger SV ahead in first-half stoppage time, finishing from an Albert Grønbæk assist to make it 1-0 at the interval. Four minutes into the second half, Grønbæk turned provider again, teeing up Yussuf Poulsen to extend the lead to 2-0. Köln pulled a goal back in the 90th minute through Ragnar Ache, assisted by Ellyes Skhiri, but there was no time left for a leveller.
Köln had enjoyed more of the ball, with 55 percent possession and 18 shots to Hamburger SV's 12, yet it was the home side who made their attacking moments count. Hamburger SV also finished with more shots on target, seven to Köln's five, underlining how clinical Polzin's side were in front of goal despite being outplayed for long spells.
Albert Grønbæk was involved in both Hamburger SV goals, setting up Capaldo before Poulsen, and finished with the highest rating on the pitch at 8.32.
Despite having 55 percent of the possession, Köln could not convert their territorial edge into a winning scoreline.
Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Köln 2–1 (half-time 1–0).
Hamburger SV met 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Saturday, 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC at Volksparkstadion. Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck.
Team pages: Hamburger SV · 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 44' Goal: Nicolás Capaldo (assist: Albert Grønbæk) — 1–0 · Watch Nicolás Capaldo's goal video (44')
- 49' Goal: Yussuf Poulsen (assist: Albert Grønbæk) — 2–0 · Watch Yussuf Poulsen's goal video (49')
- 90' Goal: Ragnar Ache (assist: Ellyes Skhiri) — 2–1 · Watch Ragnar Ache's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Hamburger SV (3-4-2-1)
1. FC Köln (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Hamburger SV 38%, the draw 28%, 1. FC Köln 34%. It finished Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Köln.
Level sides, home ground holds off 1. FC Köln's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Hamburger SV's 38% is home ground and little else. The draw at 28% is what level sides usually produce.
Why Hamburger SV in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1697 to 1704. Sides this close won 43.1% of 16,010 home games (draw 26.7%, visitors 30.2%).
Why only 38%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. 1. FC Köln hold 7 more possession points (49 to 42 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.3% across 5,596 games, from 43.9% when styles were level. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Hamburger SV's column. Across 11,181 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 28%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,242. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
In our recorded league results, 1. FC Köln are winless in their last 14 away games: 6 draws and 8 defeats. The run began on 25 October 2025. Last recorded away league win: 3 October 2025 — 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1 1. FC Köln. Latest recorded away league result: 4 September 2026 — VfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC Köln. Across 13,685 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 25.8%, compared with 24.9% expected from team strength. Hamburger SV have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Nicolás Capaldo's goal against 1. FC Köln (44').
- Watch Yussuf Poulsen's goal against 1. FC Köln (49').
- Watch Ragnar Ache's goal against Hamburger SV (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Köln. Explore more on the Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln team pages or the Bundesliga page.