SC Paderborn 07 vs 10.10.26 13:300 – 2Full Time
VfB Stuttgart — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
VfB Stuttgart beat SC Paderborn 07 2-0 at Home Deluxe Arena
VfB Stuttgart won 2-0 at SC Paderborn 07 in a Bundesliga Matchday 5 fixture at Home Deluxe Arena, taking three points that lifted them to 10th in the table on six points. Paderborn, with four points from five games, stayed 15th after a defeat that followed their win over 1899 Hoffenheim last time out.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 25th minute, when Julian Chabot scored from an Angelo Stiller assist to make it 0-1. Stuttgart carried that lead into the interval and, although Paderborn had more of the ball and more attempts after the restart, they could not find a way back into the contest.
Stuttgart sealed the result in the 83rd minute. Stiller again supplied the pass, this time for Chris Führich, whose finish made it 0-2 and ended the match as a contest. There were no red cards, and the visitors saw out the closing minutes without alarm.
Paderborn finished with the greater share of possession and shots, but the visitors made their chances count and were sharper on target. Referee Felix Zwayer dealt with a fairly even contest in which fouls were split almost evenly between the sides.
Angelo Stiller created both Stuttgart goals, assisting Julian Chabot in the 25th minute and Chris Führich in the 83rd, and earned the match's highest rating of 8.62.
Paderborn managed 23 shots to Stuttgart's 17, but only five of them were on target compared with eight for the visitors.
VfB Stuttgart won 2–0 away against SC Paderborn 07 (half-time 0–1).
SC Paderborn 07 met VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC at Home Deluxe Arena. Referee: Felix Zwayer. Attendance: 15,000.
Team pages: SC Paderborn 07 · VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 25' Goal: Jeff Chabot (assist: Angelo Stiller) — 0–1 · Watch Jeff Chabot's goal video (25')
- 83' Goal: Chris Führich (assist: Angelo Stiller) — 0–2
Starting line-ups
SC Paderborn 07 (3-5-2)
VfB Stuttgart (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave SC Paderborn 07 18%, the draw 22%, VfB Stuttgart 60%. It finished SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart.
VfB Stuttgart's rating gap outweighs SC Paderborn 07's home ground — VfB Stuttgart are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives VfB Stuttgart a clear lead. The draw at 22% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why VfB Stuttgart at 60%?
VfB Stuttgart sit 208 points higher on our strength rating — 1548 to 1755. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,670 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims SC Paderborn 07's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 18–22–60.
Why only 60%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 60% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 22% and SC Paderborn 07 at 18%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 23.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 2.0 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SC Paderborn 07 come into this after a busy window — 13 arrivals, 7 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the last 3 meetings with SC Paderborn 07. The record is 2 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 1 draw and 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07. These were 2 Bundesliga games and 1 DFB Pokal game played between 20 December 2014 and 31 January 2023. Latest meeting: 31 January 2023 — SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB Stuttgart. In 5,637 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.1%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart. Explore more on the SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart team pages or the Bundesliga page.