Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 45+2′Casa Pia, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 61′Maritimo, goal:1–0assist
- 66′Casa Pia, substitution:off
- 66′Casa Pia, substitution:off
- 78′Casa Pia, substitution:off
- 80′Casa Pia, substitution:off
- 81′Casa Pia, substitution:off
- 82′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 86′Casa Pia, yellow card:Foul
- 87′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 87′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 90+1′Maritimo, yellow card:Foul
- 90+1′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 90+1′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 90+6′Maritimo, yellow card:Time wasting
- Full-time1 – 0
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Maritimo
Casa Pia
Match report
Guzzo strike gives Maritimo winning start against Casa Pia
Maritimo began their Primeira Liga campaign with a 1-0 win over Casa Pia, a result that lifted Mitchell van der Gaag's side to the top of the table after the opening round of matches. The game was goalless at the interval despite Maritimo dominating for long spells.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 61st minute when Raphael Guzzo converted from Martín Tejón's assist to put the home side ahead. Casa Pia, who had won their previous two matches before this trip, could not find a way back and slipped to fourth in the table with defeat.
Maritimo controlled possession with 61 per cent of the ball and produced 16 shots to Casa Pia's nine, translating into an expected goals advantage of 1.25 to 0.61. Sergio Guelho booked two players from each side but did not need to reach for red.
Guzzo scored the only goal of the game and finished with the highest rating on the pitch at 8.2, while Tejón's assist for the winner also earned him praise with a 7.5 rating.
Maritimo's 61 per cent share of possession underlined their control throughout the contest.
Maritimo beat Casa Pia 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Maritimo met Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 8 August 2026, 14:30 UTC at Estadio do Maritimo. Referee: Sergio Guelho.
Team pages: Maritimo · Casa Pia · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 61' Goal: Raphael Guzzo (assist: Martín Tejón) — 1–0 · Watch Raphael Guzzo's goal video (61')
Starting line-ups
Maritimo (4-3-3)
Casa Pia (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Maritimo 29%, the draw 32%, Casa Pia 39%. It finished Maritimo 1–0 Casa Pia.
Casa Pia's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Casa Pia are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus the early-season home fade on top give Casa Pia the lean. The draw at 32% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Casa Pia at 39%?
Casa Pia sit 104 points higher on our strength rating — 1424 to 1528. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 13,019 such games. Casa Pia sit -0.48 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,328 such games where the class table expected 36.2%. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Maritimo's column. Across 10,505 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 40–28–32.
Why only 39%?
Maritimo hold 13 more possession points (50 to 37 in recent games) across a 104-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,562 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Maritimo win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,507. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Maritimo are newly promoted — game 1 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Maritimo vs Casa Pia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Maritimo 1–0 Casa Pia. Explore more on the Maritimo and Casa Pia team pages or the Primeira Liga page.