Estrela vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow3 clips- 46′Sporting CP, goal:0–1assist
- 52′Estrela, yellow card:Foul
- 59′Sporting CP, goal:0–2assist
- 61′Sporting CP, substitution:off
- 61′Sporting CP, substitution:off
- 65′Estrela, substitution:off
- 67′Sporting CP, yellow card:Off the ball foul
- 72′Estrela, goal:1–2assist
- 74′Estrela, substitution:off
- 74′Estrela, substitution:off
- 78′Sporting CP, substitution:off
- 78′Sporting CP, substitution:off
- 82′Sporting CP, substitution:off
- 84′Estrela, goal:2–2assist
- 89′Estrela, substitution:off
- 89′Estrela, substitution:off
- 90+2′Estrela, yellow card:Foul
- 90+2′Sporting CP, yellow card:Argument
- Full-time2 – 2
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Estrela
Sporting CP
Match report
Estrela fight back from two down to draw with Sporting CP
Estrela and Sporting CP shared the points in a 2-2 draw in the Primeira Liga's opening round, a result that came after the visitors had appeared to be cruising towards victory. The match was scoreless at half-time before erupting into life over the closing stages.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Sporting struck immediately after the break when Rodrigo Zalazar converted a Geny Catamo assist in the 46th minute, and the lead was doubled soon after as Fotis Ioannidis finished off a Zalazar pass in the 59th minute to make it 0-2. Estrela responded through Leandro Antonetti, who pulled one back in the 72nd minute from an Ianis Stoica assist.
The home side completed their recovery late on when Beni Souza levelled in the 84th minute, assisted by Robinho, to make it 2-2 and secure a share of the spoils. Sporting had dominated territory and chances, but could not hold on for the win.
Sporting held 56% of possession and outshot Estrela 15 to 9, with 8 shots on target compared to Estrela's 4, while also leading 2.63 to 1.01 in expected goals, underlining their control despite failing to see out the result.
Rodrigo Zalazar scored and set up a goal in a rating of 9.2, providing the assist for Ioannidis's strike shortly after opening the scoring himself.
Sporting's expected goals figure of 2.63 against Estrela's 1.01 reflected their greater cutting edge in front of goal, even as the visitors ultimately let a two-goal lead slip.
Estrela and Sporting CP drew 2–2 (half-time 0–0).
Estrela met Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 8 August 2026, 19:30 UTC at Estádio José Gomes. Referee: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves.
Team pages: Estrela · Sporting CP · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 46' Goal: Rodrigo Zalazar (assist: Geny Catamo) — 0–1 · Watch Rodrigo Zalazar's goal video (46')
- 59' Goal: Fotis Ioannidis (assist: Rodrigo Zalazar) — 0–2 · Watch Fotis Ioannidis's goal video (59')
- 72' Goal: Leandro Antonetti (assist: Ianis Stoica) — 1–2 · Watch Leandro Antonetti's goal video (72')
- 84' Goal: Beni Souza (assist: Robinho) — 2–2
Starting line-ups
Estrela (4-2-3-1)
- 24 Léo Linck
- 55 Rafa Soares
- 4 Bernardo Schappo
- 30 Luan Patrick (c)
- 21 Max Scholze
- 39 Eddy Doue
- 78 Santiago Serra
- 10 Ianis Stoica
- 14 Lovro Zvonarek
- 99 Abraham Marcus
- 37 Leandro Antonetti
Sporting CP (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Estrela 7%, the draw 17%, Sporting CP 76%. It finished Estrela 2–2 Sporting CP.
Sporting CP's rating gap outweighs Estrela's home ground — Sporting CP are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top makes it one-sided for Sporting CP. The draw at 17% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Sporting CP at 76%?
Sporting CP sit 597 points higher on our strength rating — 1428 to 2025. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge on the road won 65.8% of 5,163 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Estrela's column. Across 10,505 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 8–12–80.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 76% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 17% and Estrela at 7%.
Why is the draw only 17%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 13.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,507. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Sporting CP average 18 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 597 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Sporting CP won all of the last 5 games between these sides. Head-to-head dominance hasn't carried forward beyond the rating: sides that won 4+ of the last 5 meetings won 55.6% of 9,180 next meetings vs 55.1% class-expected. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Estrela vs Sporting CP final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Rodrigo Zalazar's goal against Estrela (46').
- Watch Fotis Ioannidis's goal against Estrela (59').
- Watch Leandro Antonetti's goal against Sporting CP (72').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Estrela 2–2 Sporting CP. Explore more on the Estrela and Sporting CP team pages or the Primeira Liga page.