This match has been postponed. A new date has not been announced yet.
SC Braga vs PostponedOriginally scheduled 16 Aug, 19:30
GIL Vicente — Primeira Liga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente — the facts
SC Braga meet GIL Vicente in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off is Sunday, 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. Referee: Fábio Veríssimo.
Team pages: SC Braga · GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
SC Braga 66% · Draw 22% · GIL Vicente 12%
SC Braga's rating gap decides it — SC Braga are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of SC Braga's 66%. The draw at 22% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why SC Braga at 66%?
SC Braga sit 251 points higher on our strength rating — 1881 to 1629. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 5,930 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 69–19–12.
Why only 66%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims SC Braga's column. Across 10,596 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 18.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,580. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SC Braga average 5 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 251 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. SC Braga on 3 days' rest, GIL Vicente on 7. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 43,422 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for SC Braga vs GIL Vicente, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Primeira Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the SC Braga and GIL Vicente team pages or the Primeira Liga page.