Match report
Casa Pia snatch late win to sink bottom side Estoril
Estoril fell to a 2-1 defeat by Casa Pia in a Primeira Liga round 7 fixture at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, leaving the hosts still searching for their first win of the campaign. The scoreline flattered a Casa Pia side that arrived having taken just four points from seven matches, while Estoril sat second-bottom on two.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The deadlock held until the 70th minute, when Ricard Sánchez put Estoril ahead with a goal assisted by Jordan Holsgrove. The lead lasted barely two minutes: Silvi levelled for Casa Pia after a pass from Lawrence Ofori. The visitors then struck late, Benjamin Pauwels converting a Sebastián Pérez assist in the 89th minute to complete the turnaround and secure victory for Filipe Coelho's side.
Estoril had the greater share of possession, 53 to 47 percent, and edged the shot count 14 to 11, including six on target to Casa Pia's three, yet could not convert that territorial edge into more than a single goal. Casa Pia were also the more heavily punished side for fouls, conceding 11 to Estoril's seven, but made their limited chances count when it mattered most.
Benjamin Pauwels scored the decisive late goal for Casa Pia and finished with a rating of 7.7, matched only by Estoril's Jordan Holsgrove, who supplied the assist for his side's opener.
Estoril dominated the shot count 14 to 11 and still finished on the losing side, underlining how inefficient their attacking play proved on the night.
Casa Pia won 2–1 away against Estoril (half-time 0–0).
Estoril met Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Sunday, 20 September 2026, 17:00 UTC at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Referee: Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho.
Team pages: Estoril · Casa Pia · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 70' Goal: Ricard Sánchez (assist: Jordan Holsgrove) — 1–0 · Watch Ricard Sánchez's goal video (70')
- 72' Goal: Silvi (assist: Lawrence Ofori) — 1–1 · Watch Silvi's goal video (72')
- 89' Goal: Benjamin Pauwels (assist: Sebastián Pérez) — 1–2 · Watch Benjamin Pauwels's goal video (89')
Starting line-ups
Estoril (4-2-3-1)
Casa Pia (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Estoril 46%, the draw 31%, Casa Pia 23%. It finished Estoril 1–2 Casa Pia.
Estoril's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Estoril are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Estoril the lean. The draw at 31% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Estoril at 46%?
Estoril sit 87 points higher on our strength rating — 1557 to 1470. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.4% of 10,491 such games. Estoril hold 6 more possession points (48 to 42 in recent games) across a 87-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,703 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why only 46%?
Casa Pia sit -0.50 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.4% of 1,378 games, vs 29.1% for visitors finishing normally.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Casa Pia win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.0 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.1% of 18,230. The goals environment adds 3.5 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Estoril sit -0.40 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Estoril have shed 64 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,779 such games vs 34.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Estoril vs Casa Pia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Ricard Sánchez's goal against Casa Pia (70').
- Watch Silvi's goal against Estoril (72').
- Watch Benjamin Pauwels's goal against Estoril (89').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Estoril 1–2 Casa Pia. Explore more on the Estoril and Casa Pia team pages or the Primeira Liga page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Casa Pia won 2–1 away against Estoril (half-time 0–0).
›Who scored in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Ricard Sánchez (70') for Estoril; Silvi (72') for Casa Pia; Benjamin Pauwels (89') for Casa Pia.
›Where can I watch Estoril vs Casa Pia highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Estoril 1–2 Casa Pia are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Casa Pia?
Estoril and Casa Pia have met 8 times — 3 wins for Estoril, 1 win for Casa Pia and 4 draws.