HighlightsVSPORTS - Liga PortugalYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 19′Nacional, goal:1–0assist
- 19′Nacional, VAR review:Goal confirmed
- 33′Nacional, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 46′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 46′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 62′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 68′Nacional, substitution:off
- 68′Nacional, substitution:off
- 76′SC Braga, substitution:off
- 78′Nacional, substitution:off
- 78′Nacional, substitution:off
- 79′SC Braga, yellow card:Foul
- 86′Nacional, substitution:off
- 86′Nacional, yellow card:Foul
- 90+4′SC Braga, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
Tap a player for match stats
Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goal
Assist
Videos
Player Ratings
Nacional
SC Braga
Match report
Nacional end losing run with 1-0 win over Braga
Nacional ended a run of seven defeats in a row by beating SC Braga 1-0 in the Primeira Liga on Matchday 9 at Estádio da Madeira. Miguel Baeza scored the only goal of the evening, and the hosts held on to a lead built before the half-hour mark.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The goal came in the 19th minute. Song Min-Kyu created it for Baeza, and Nacional led 1-0, which was how the first half finished. Nothing more was added to the scoreline after the interval, although Braga pressed throughout the second period in search of an equaliser.
Braga controlled the ball, with 71% possession to Nacional's 29%, and had 20 shots to 8 and six corners to four. Nacional's shots were more accurate, though: four of their eight were on target, against two of Braga's 20. João Henriques's side defended deep and absorbed the pressure, while Franclim Carvalho's team found no way through.
The result lifted Nacional from 17th to 15th, on seven points, while Braga stayed ninth on 11. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Nacional a 19% chance of winning. Nacional travel to Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Sunday, while Braga host Famalicao in the Taça da Liga on Thursday.
Miguel Baeza scored the decisive goal in the 19th minute and was the match's top-rated player at 7.96. Song Min-Kyu, who supplied the assist, also featured among the leading performers.
Braga had 71% of the possession yet created too little to find an equaliser.
Nacional beat SC Braga 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Nacional met SC Braga in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Sunday, 25 October 2026, 18:00 UTC at Estádio da Madeira. Referee: Jose Bessa.
Team pages: Nacional · SC Braga · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 19' Goal: Miguel Baeza (assist: Song Min-Kyu) — 1–0 · Watch Miguel Baeza's goal video (19')
Starting line-ups
Nacional (5-4-1)
SC Braga (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Nacional 19%, the draw 27%, SC Braga 54%. It finished Nacional 1–0 SC Braga.
SC Braga's strength edge shapes the forecast — We give SC Braga 54% mainly because they sit 261 points higher on our strength rating, 1649 to 1387, which outweighs the usual home advantage Nacional start with. The draw sits at 27%, starting from the usual 26% for a gap this size and nudged up slightly by both teams' recent games averaging 2.5 goals.
Why SC Braga at 54%?
SC Braga sit 261 points higher on our strength rating — 1649 to 1387. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,282 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 21–28–51.
Why only 54%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 54% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Nacional at 19%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Nacional win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,316. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SC Braga have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Nacional in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Nacional come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals and 11 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Nacional vs SC Braga final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Nacional 1–0 SC Braga. Explore more on the Nacional and SC Braga team pages or the Primeira Liga page.