Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96 — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow4 clips- 14′Energie Cottbus, goal:1–0
- 28′Hannover 96, goal:1–1
- 45+3′Hannover 96, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 1
- 46′Energie Cottbus, substitution:off
- 46′Energie Cottbus, substitution:off
- 46′Energie Cottbus, substitution:off
- 63′Hannover 96, substitution:off
- 71′Energie Cottbus, penalty goal:2–1Penalty
- 76′Energie Cottbus, goal:3–1assist
- 77′Energie Cottbus, substitution:off
- 79′Hannover 96, substitution:off
- 79′Hannover 96, substitution:off
- 79′Hannover 96, substitution:off
- 79′Hannover 96, substitution:off
- 83′Energie Cottbus, substitution:off
- 86′Hannover 96, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time3 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assist
Videos
Player Ratings
Energie Cottbus
Hannover 96
Match report
Cottbus overturn xG deficit to sink Hannover 3-1
Energie Cottbus opened their 2. Bundesliga campaign with a 3-1 win over Hannover 96 at the LEAG Energie Stadion, despite being outplayed for large spells of the contest. Tolcay Ciğerci put the hosts ahead after 14 minutes, only for Maurice Neubauer to level for Hannover on 28 minutes, leaving the sides level at the break.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The turning point came in the second half, with Ciğerci converting a penalty in the 71st minute to restore Cottbus's lead. Five minutes later Justin Butler added a third, finishing off an assist from Luca Erlein to put the result beyond Hannover's reach. Hannover, who had arrived unbeaten in their previous five, found no way back after Butler's strike.
The statistics told a story of contrast: Hannover dominated possession at 54% and had 25 shots to Cottbus's 12, along with a superior expected goals tally of 2.73 to 1.38, yet it was Cottbus's clinical edge that decided the match. Referee Lars Erbst booked two Hannover players, with the hosts collecting no cautions of their own.
Marcel Lotka earned the joint-highest rating of the match at 9.9, though his contribution came without a direct goal or assist, suggesting a commanding display between the posts. Ciğerci was the game's chief creator, scoring both of Cottbus's opening two goals including the decisive penalty.
Hannover's 25 shots to Cottbus's 12 underlined their territorial dominance, even as they left the LEAG Energie Stadion with nothing to show for it.
Energie Cottbus beat Hannover 96 3–1 (half-time 1–1).
Energie Cottbus met Hannover 96 in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Sunday, 9 August 2026, 11:30 UTC at LEAG Energie Stadion. Referee: Lars Erbst.
Team pages: Energie Cottbus · Hannover 96 · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 14' Goal: Tolcay Ciğerci — 1–0 · Watch Tolcay Ciğerci's goal video (14')
- 28' Goal: Maurice Neubauer — 1–1 · Watch Maurice Neubauer's goal video (28')
- 71' Goal (penalty): Tolcay Ciğerci — 2–1 · Watch Tolcay Ciğerci's goal video (71')
- 76' Goal: Justin Butler (assist: Luca Erlein) — 3–1 · Watch Justin Butler's goal video (76')
Starting line-ups
Energie Cottbus (4-2-3-1)
Hannover 96 (3-3-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Energie Cottbus 32%, the draw 27%, Hannover 96 41%. It finished Energie Cottbus 3–1 Hannover 96.
Hannover 96's rating edge outweighs Energie Cottbus' home ground — Hannover 96 are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives Hannover 96 the lean. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Hannover 96 at 41%?
Hannover 96 sit 104 points higher on our strength rating — 1561 to 1664. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 13,026 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Energie Cottbus's column. Across 10,529 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 35–30–35.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Energie Cottbus at 32%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 16,878. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Hannover 96 average 23 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 104 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Energie Cottbus are unbeaten in their last 12 league games at home. Rolling home runs look imposing but sides on a 6+ run won 56.3% of 13,481 games vs 54.6% class-expected — and in our walked test the rating already carried it. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96 final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Tolcay Ciğerci's goal against Hannover 96 (14').
- Watch Maurice Neubauer's goal against Energie Cottbus (28').
- Watch Tolcay Ciğerci's goal against Hannover 96 (71').
- Watch Justin Butler's goal against Hannover 96 (76').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Energie Cottbus 3–1 Hannover 96. Explore more on the Energie Cottbus and Hannover 96 team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.