FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 4′FC St. Pauli, yellow card:Foul
- 12′VfL Wolfsburg, yellow card:Foul
- 32′FC St. Pauli, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 65′VfL Wolfsburg, substitution:off
- 65′VfL Wolfsburg, substitution:off
- 67′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 70′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 74′VfL Wolfsburg, substitution:off
- 74′VfL Wolfsburg, substitution:off
- 78′VfL Wolfsburg, yellow card:Tobias StroblDissent
- 82′VfL Wolfsburg, substitution:off
- 85′VfL Wolfsburg, yellow card:Foul
- 88′FC St. Pauli, goal:1–0
- 90+1′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 90+1′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
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FC St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg
Match report
Fujita's late strike gives St Pauli narrow win over Wolfsburg
FC St. Pauli edged VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at the Millerntor-Stadion in matchday five of the 2. Bundesliga, a result that offered Rapp's side some relief after a run of draws and defeats. The game stayed goalless through the opening periods before a late intervention settled matters.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Joel Fujita broke the deadlock in the 88th minute, converting to put the home side 1-0 ahead and ensuring the scoreline held until the final whistle. It proved the only goal of a contest in which St. Pauli had pressed for a breakthrough despite seeing far less of the ball than their visitors.
Wolfsburg dominated possession with 60 percent of the ball but could not translate that control into a cutting edge in front of goal, managing just two shots on target compared to St. Pauli's four. The home side's greater threat and set-piece pressure, reflected in ten corners to Wolfsburg's four, ultimately proved decisive.
The win lifted St. Pauli to eighth in the table on six points from five matches, while Wolfsburg remained fifth on eight points despite the setback.
Joel Fujita scored the decisive late goal for St. Pauli and finished as the match's top-rated performer with a mark of 8.05.
Wolfsburg held 60 percent of the possession yet were unable to convert that dominance into a goal, underlining how territorial control did not translate to a result.
FC St. Pauli beat VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
FC St. Pauli met VfL Wolfsburg in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 12 September 2026, 18:30 UTC at Millerntor-Stadion. Referee: Sören Storks.
Team pages: FC St. Pauli · VfL Wolfsburg · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 88' Goal: Joel Chima Fujita — 1–0 · Watch Joel Chima Fujita's goal video (88')
Starting line-ups
FC St. Pauli (4-1-3-2)
VfL Wolfsburg (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FC St. Pauli 31%, the draw 29%, VfL Wolfsburg 40%. It finished FC St. Pauli 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg.
VfL Wolfsburg's rating edge outweighs FC St. Pauli's home ground — VfL Wolfsburg are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus the early-season home fade on top give VfL Wolfsburg the lean. The draw at 29% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why VfL Wolfsburg at 40%?
VfL Wolfsburg sit 131 points higher on our strength rating — 1603 to 1733. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,164 such games. VfL Wolfsburg sit -0.32 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 39.0% of 2,436 such games where the class table expected 36.3%. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims FC St. Pauli's column. Across 11,058 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 34–31–35.
Why only 40%?
FC St. Pauli sit -0.32 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 39.0% of 2,436 such games where the class table expected 36.3%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,048. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
VfL Wolfsburg have gained 63 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,345 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Last 6 between them: FC St. Pauli 0 wins, 4 draws, VfL Wolfsburg 2 wins. Most recently FC St. Pauli 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg, 4 months ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 28.1% of 5628 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FC St. Pauli 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg. Explore more on the FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.