FC St. Pauli vs 11.10.26 11:302 – 0Full Time
Karlsruher SC — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
FC St. Pauli beat Karlsruher SC 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli beat Karlsruher SC 2-0 at the Millerntor-Stadion on Matchday 7 of the 2. Bundesliga, a result that lifted the hosts from 10th to 7th in the table. Karlsruher SC, who began the afternoon 17th, stayed there on five points from seven games.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 32nd minute, when Abdoulie Ceesay finished from Connor Metcalfe's assist to make it 1-0, the scoreline at half-time. Marcel Rapp's side doubled the lead six minutes into the second half, in the 51st minute, as Lars Ritzka scored from Eric Smith's pass.
Karlsruher SC saw slightly more of the ball, with 53 per cent possession, and won more corners, nine to six, but St. Pauli had the better of the shooting, with 13 attempts to 12 and six on target to five. There were no red cards, and Maximilian Senft's side could not find a way back into the game.
The result ended a run of one win in St. Pauli's previous five league games, while Karlsruher SC had lost three of their last five before kick-off. Ten points from seven matches left the hosts with a comfortable cushion over the visitors, who stayed on five.
Abdoulie Ceesay scored the opening goal and earned the match's top rating of 8.2. Eric Smith followed on 7.7 after setting up Ritzka's goal.
Karlsruher SC won nine corners to St. Pauli's six but could not turn that territory into a goal.
FC St. Pauli beat Karlsruher SC 2–0 (half-time 1–0).
FC St. Pauli met Karlsruher SC in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 11:30 UTC at Millerntor-Stadion. Referee: Lukas Benen.
Team pages: FC St. Pauli · Karlsruher SC · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 32' Goal: Abdoulie Ceesay (assist: Connor Metcalfe) — 1–0
- 51' Goal: Lars Ritzka (assist: Eric Smith) — 2–0
Starting line-ups
FC St. Pauli (4-1-3-2)
Karlsruher SC (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FC St. Pauli 56%, the draw 23%, Karlsruher SC 21%. It finished FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC.
FC St. Pauli's rating edge carries it — FC St. Pauli are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of FC St. Pauli's 56%. The draw at 23% is down from the usual 24.9% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why FC St. Pauli at 56%?
FC St. Pauli sit 83 points higher on our strength rating — 1455 to 1372. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,339 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 54–26–20.
Why only 56%?
Karlsruher SC sit -0.32 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.6% of 2,512 such games where the class table expected 35.9%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,145. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Karlsruher SC come into this after a busy window — 12 arrivals and 13 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). FC St. Pauli won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Karlsruher SC. The record is 3 wins for FC St. Pauli, 2 draws and 1 win for Karlsruher SC. These were 6 2. Bundesliga games played at both grounds between 25 September 2021 and 6 April 2024. Latest meeting: 6 April 2024 — Karlsruher SC 2–1 FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli lead the 6-match record, although Karlsruher SC won the latest encounter. In 5,181 historical matches between similarly rated teams, home sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 43.9%.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the FC St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.