Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 34′Hertha BSC, yellow card:Foul
- 38′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 50′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 64′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 64′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 68′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- 69′Hertha BSC, substitution:off
- 69′Hertha BSC, substitution:off
- 76′Hertha BSC, substitution:off
- 81′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 82′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 89′Hertha BSC, substitution:off
- 90′Hertha BSC, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Player Ratings
Holstein Kiel
Hertha BSC
Match report
Holstein Kiel hold Hertha BSC to goalless draw at Holstein-Stadion
Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC played out a 0-0 draw at the Holstein-Stadion on Matchday 8 of the 2. Bundesliga. The result ended Hertha's run of five wins in a row, though it extended their unbeaten sequence to nine games. For Kiel, it was a point against the division's leaders.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
No goals came in either half, and the events list records nothing of note beyond the stalemate. Hertha dominated the ball, holding 57 per cent of possession and working 15 shots to Kiel's 6, with seven of those on target against three for the hosts. They also won six corners to one.
Kiel, who had gone six games without a win, defended resolutely and were not entirely passive in attack, putting three efforts on target. Even so, the numbers pointed to a contest in which Hertha created the clearer openings without finding a way through. Fouls were frequent, 18 by the hosts and 14 by the visitors, and each side collected two yellow cards.
The point lifted Kiel to 5 points from eight games, while Hertha stayed top on 22. Hertha play at home to Arminia Bielefeld in the 2. Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October, and Kiel host Dynamo Dresden in the same competition on Sunday 25 October.
Timon Weiner earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 7.92, as Kiel held out against the league leaders. Linus Gechter and Marius Gersbeck followed for Hertha on 7.39 each.
Hertha BSC had 15 shots to Holstein Kiel's 6 but could not turn that advantage into a goal.
Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0).
Holstein Kiel met Hertha BSC in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Friday, 16 October 2026, 16:30 UTC at Holstein-Stadion. Referee: Jarno Wienefeld.
Team pages: Holstein Kiel · Hertha BSC · 2. Bundesliga
Starting line-ups
Holstein Kiel (4-5-1)
Hertha BSC (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Holstein Kiel 34%, the draw 25%, Hertha BSC 41%. It finished Holstein Kiel 0–0 Hertha BSC.
Hertha's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — Hertha BSC sit 128 points higher on our strength rating, 1527 to 1399, which is enough to outweigh Holstein Kiel's usual home advantage, so we give Hertha 41% to Kiel's 34%. The draw starts near 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, but drops to 25% because both sides' own recent games average 3.3 goals.
Why Hertha BSC at 41%?
Hertha BSC sit 128 points higher on our strength rating — 1527 to 1399. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,843 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–27–43.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Holstein Kiel at 34%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,931. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Holstein Kiel have averaged 9 percentage points more possession than Hertha BSC in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Hertha BSC scored +0.47 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,840 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.