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Shelbourne vs 23.07.26 18:455 – 2Full Time
Kalju Nomme — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysisMatch report
Shelbourne beat Kalju Nomme 5–2 (half-time 3–1).
Shelbourne met Kalju Nomme in the UEFA Europa Conference League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 23 July 2026, 18:45 UTC at Tolka Park. Referee: K. Szabolcs.
Team pages: Shelbourne · Kalju Nomme · UEFA Europa Conference League
Before kick-off Sirius gave Shelbourne 57%, the draw 28%, Kalju Nomme 15%. It finished Shelbourne 5–2 Kalju Nomme.
Shelbourne's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Shelbourne are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover on top gives Shelbourne a clear lead. The draw at 28% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Shelbourne sit 121 points higher on our strength rating — 1276 to 1155. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,558 such games. Shelbourne sit -0.59 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,311 such games where the class table expected 36.1%. The 300 most similar past games finished 53–25–22.
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Kalju Nomme at 15%.
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,012. The goals environment adds 3.2 points to the draw.
Shelbourne have 18 fully-tracked matches with us — under our usual 25-game bar — but their strength rating is anchored to the long-run European club ratings list, which carries their wider competitive history into the number. Clubs from leagues we don't fully cover play too few tracked games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from published long-run club ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
On this page: the Shelbourne vs Kalju Nomme final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Shelbourne 5–2 Kalju Nomme. Explore more on the Shelbourne and Kalju Nomme team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.
Shelbourne beat Kalju Nomme 5–2 (half-time 3–1).
R. Freitas (3') for Shelbourne; Sean Moore (21') for Shelbourne; Alistair Coote (25') for Shelbourne; Enrique Lotar (40') for Kalju Nomme; Sean Moore (47') for Shelbourne; Daniel Ring (89') for Shelbourne; Enrique Lotar (90') for Kalju Nomme.
Goal highlights and video clips from Shelbourne 5–2 Kalju Nomme are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
Shelbourne and Kalju Nomme have met 1 time — 0 wins for Shelbourne, 1 win for Kalju Nomme and 0 draws.