HighlightsLega BYouTubeMatch Events
- 18′Mantova, yellow card:Foul
- 30′Mantova, goal:0–1assist
- 34′Mantova, goal:0–2assist
- Half-time0 – 2
- 46′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 46′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 55′Mantova, goal:0–3assist
- 64′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 64′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 66′Mantova, substitution:off
- 66′Mantova, substitution:off
- 71′Mantova, substitution:off
- 72′Mantova, substitution:off
- 78′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 81′Mantova, substitution:off
- 86′Catanzaro, yellow card:Foul
- 90+1′Catanzaro, goal:1–3assist
- 90+3′Mantova, yellow card:Argument
- 90+3′Catanzaro, yellow card:Argument
- Full-time1 – 3
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Catanzaro
Mantova
Match report
Mantova win 3-1 at Catanzaro to move up to second in Serie B
Mantova beat Catanzaro 3-1 at the Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Serie B on matchday 6, scoring twice before the interval and adding a third early in the second half. The result lifted the visitors from third to second in the table on 14 points, while Catanzaro stayed 19th on three.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 30th minute, when Bodin Tomašević finished from Rareş Ilie's assist. Four minutes later Francesco Ruocco doubled the lead, set up by Fahem Benaissa-Yahia, and Mantova went in at half-time 2-0 ahead.
Davide Bragantini made it 3-0 in the 55th minute from Alessio Castellini's assist, and the contest looked settled. Catanzaro did pull one back in the 90+1 minute, Matias Antonini scoring from Emanuele Pecorino's assist, but it came too late to change the outcome.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Mantova a 23% chance of winning. Catanzaro next travel to Hellas Verona in Serie B on Friday, while Mantova host Palermo in the same competition on Saturday.
Francesco Ruocco scored Mantova's second goal and earned the highest rating of the match, 8.2. Davide Bragantini, who added the third, was a fraction behind on 8.19.
Mantova put eight of their 17 shots on target, double the four Catanzaro managed from 14.
Mantova won 3–1 away against Catanzaro (half-time 0–2).
Catanzaro met Mantova in the Serie B (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. Referee: Giuseppe Mucera.
Key moments
- 30' Goal: Bodin Tomašević (assist: Rareş Ilie) — 0–1
- 34' Goal: Francesco Ruocco (assist: Fahem Benaissa-Yahia) — 0–2
- 55' Goal: Davide Bragantini (assist: Alessio Castellini) — 0–3
- 90+1' Goal: Matias Antonini (assist: Emanuele Pecorino) — 1–3
Starting line-ups
Catanzaro (3-4-2-1)
Mantova (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Catanzaro 47%, the draw 30%, Mantova 23%. It finished Catanzaro 1–3 Mantova.
Level sides, Catanzaro's control of the ball swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Catanzaro's control of the ball plus Mantova's hot finishing due to cool give Catanzaro the lean. The draw at 30% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Catanzaro in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1415 to 1431. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,803 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%). Catanzaro hold 7 more possession points (56 to 49 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.2% of 5,137 games, vs 43.9% when styles were level. Mantova scored +0.50 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.1% of 1,453 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 47%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (26.0% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,069 games vs 44.6% across all 101,096 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Catanzaro's column. Across 11,278 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Mantova win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,880. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points. The goals environment takes 2.9 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Mantova have gained 78 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,181 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Catanzaro won 2 of the last 4 meetings with Mantova. The record is 2 wins for Catanzaro, 2 draws and 0 wins for Mantova. These were 4 Serie B games played at both grounds between 23 November 2024 and 14 February 2026. Latest meeting: 14 February 2026 — Catanzaro 2–0 Mantova. In 5,181 historical matches between similarly rated teams, home sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 43.9%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Catanzaro vs Mantova final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Catanzaro 1–3 Mantova. Explore more on the Catanzaro and Mantova team pages or the Serie B page.