Match report
Bradford edge out Burnley on penalties in League Cup shootout drama
Bradford advanced in the League Cup Round of 64 after a goalless draw with Burnley was settled 4-2 on penalties at Valley Parade. Neither side could find a breakthrough in 90 minutes, leaving the tie to be decided from the spot, where Bradford held their nerve to go through.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Burnley dominated much of the possession, holding the ball for 68 per cent of the match and registering 23 shots to Bradford's 16, with six on target compared to their hosts' four. Despite that territorial control, reflected in a slight edge in expected goals, 1.87 to 1.54, they were unable to convert their pressure into a goal.
Bradford were more direct going forward but similarly wasteful, and the match produced no goals across the 90 minutes despite the physical exchanges, with Bradford picking up two yellow cards to none for their visitors. It was the shootout that ultimately decided the contest in the hosts' favour.
Goalkeeper Jon McCracken was central to Bradford's progress, finishing with a rating of 9.2 as the last line of defence through 90 goalless minutes and the shootout that followed.
Burnley's dominance in the corner count, 14 to Bradford's 5, underlined their greater share of sustained attacking pressure.
Bradford and Burnley drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Bradford won the penalty shootout 4–2.
Bradford met Burnley in the League Cup (Round of 64). Kick-off was Wednesday, 26 August 2026, 18:45 UTC at Valley Parade. Referee: M. Coy.
Team pages: Bradford · Burnley · League Cup
Starting line-ups
Bradford (3-4-2-1)
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bradford 29%, the draw 30%, Burnley 41%. It finished Bradford 0–0 Burnley.
Burnley's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Burnley are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Burnley the lean. The draw at 30% is up from the usual 27.2% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Burnley at 41%?
Burnley sit 139 points higher on our strength rating — 1412 to 1550. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,098 such games. Burnley hold 10 more possession points (50 to 40 in recent games) across a 139-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,628 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 31–30–39.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 30% and Bradford at 29%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Bradford win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,662. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Burnley have shed 92 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,660 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Bradford arrive with 24 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Burnley bring a 654-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bradford vs Burnley final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this League Cup fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Bradford and Burnley team pages or the League Cup page.