St. Truiden vs Omonia Nicosia — UEFA Europa League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 46′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 50′St. Truiden, yellow card:Holding
- 51′Omonia Nicosia, yellow card:Foul
- 61′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 61′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 71′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 77′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 77′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 85′Omonia Nicosia, yellow card:Unsportsmanlike conduct
- 90′St. Truiden, goal:1–0assist
- 90+1′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
Match report
St. Truiden vs Omonia Nicosia — the facts
St. Truiden beat Omonia Nicosia 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
St. Truiden met Omonia Nicosia in the UEFA Europa League (Play-offs). Kick-off was Thursday, 20 August 2026, 18:00 UTC at Stayen. Referee: Georgi Kabakov.
Team pages: St. Truiden · Omonia Nicosia · UEFA Europa League
Key moments
- 90' Goal: Shogo Taniguchi (assist: Ryan Merlen) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
St. Truiden (4-3-3)
Omonia Nicosia (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave St. Truiden 48%, the draw 29%, Omonia Nicosia 23%. It finished St. Truiden 1–0 Omonia Nicosia.
St. Truiden's rating edge, but the draw is in play — St. Truiden are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and UEFA Europa League home advantage plus their control of the ball on top give St. Truiden the lean. The draw at 29% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why St. Truiden at 48%?
St. Truiden sit 93 points higher on our strength rating — 1704 to 1611. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.6% of 10,362 such games. UEFA Europa League home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (22.8% vs 24.9% norm). UEFA Europa League homes won 47.5% of 4,414 games vs 44.9% across all 99,157 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. St. Truiden hold 8 more possession points (56 to 48 in recent games) across a 93-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,598 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why only 48%?
Omonia Nicosia sit -0.42 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.5% of 1,309 games, vs 28.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Omonia Nicosia win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.2 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,101. The goals environment adds 3.2 points to the draw. UEFA Europa League produces fewer draws than most, taking 2.1 points off.
What did we measure but not count?
St. Truiden have gained 68 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.5% of 12,179 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the St. Truiden vs Omonia Nicosia final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the St. Truiden and Omonia Nicosia team pages or the UEFA Europa League page.