Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough — League Cup: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsCrystal Palace FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 37′Crystal Palace, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 53′Crystal Palace, goal:2–0assist
- 59′Crystal Palace, substitution:off
- 59′Crystal Palace, substitution:off
- 65′Middlesbrough, yellow card:Foul
- 67′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 67′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 72′Crystal Palace, goal:3–0assist
- 73′Crystal Palace, substitution:off
- 73′Crystal Palace, substitution:off
- 73′Crystal Palace, substitution:off
- 77′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 83′Middlesbrough, yellow card:Foul
- 84′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- Full-time3 – 0
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Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough
Match report
Strand Larsen brace fires Crystal Palace past Middlesbrough
Crystal Palace eased into the next round of the League Cup with a 3-0 victory over Middlesbrough at Selhurst Park in a Round of 32 tie. Jørgen Strand Larsen's double either side of half-time, followed by a third from Daichi Kamada, ensured Palace never looked troubled after taking the lead.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The hosts broke the deadlock in the 37th minute when Strand Larsen converted an Óscar Mingueza assist to make it 1-0 at the break. Palace doubled their advantage eight minutes into the second half as Strand Larsen struck again, this time teed up by Benjamin Chilwell, before Kamada added a third in the 72nd minute with Strand Larsen turning provider.
Palace dominated proceedings without needing to overextend themselves, finishing with 63 per cent of possession despite being outshot 16 to 8 by their visitors. Middlesbrough could not translate their volume of attempts into meaningful pressure on the scoreline, and the three goals settled the contest comfortably for the home side.
Strand Larsen scored twice and set up Kamada's goal, earning a rating of 9.58 in a display that shaped the entire match.
Middlesbrough had considerably more shots than Crystal Palace, 16 to 8, yet found themselves well beaten on the scoreboard.
Crystal Palace beat Middlesbrough 3–0 (half-time 1–0).
Crystal Palace met Middlesbrough in the League Cup (Round of 32). Kick-off was Tuesday, 8 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Selhurst Park. Referee: Tony Harrington.
Team pages: Crystal Palace · Middlesbrough · League Cup
Key moments
- 37' Goal: Jørgen Strand Larsen (assist: Óscar Mingueza) — 1–0
- 53' Goal: Jørgen Strand Larsen (assist: Ben Chilwell) — 2–0 · Watch Jørgen Strand Larsen's goal video (53')
- 72' Goal: Daichi Kamada (assist: Jørgen Strand Larsen) — 3–0 · Watch Daichi Kamada's goal video (72')
Starting line-ups
Crystal Palace (5-4-1)
Middlesbrough (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Crystal Palace 88%, the draw 9%, Middlesbrough 3%. It finished Crystal Palace 3–0 Middlesbrough.
Crystal Palace's rating gap decides it — Crystal Palace are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and a cup tie across divisions on top makes it one-sided for Crystal Palace. The draw at 9% is cut by the cup-tie effect.
Why Crystal Palace at 88%?
Crystal Palace sit 261 points higher on our strength rating — 1847 to 1586. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 5,985 such games. A cup tie across divisions: Crystal Palace carry a 261-point rating edge over Middlesbrough, who play their league football in a division below. Ratings compress across divisions — a favorite like this is usually better than its number. Higher-division cup favorites won 77.2% of 1,313 such ties where the class table expected 59.7% — positive in every recent season, and it passed our walked forward test before earning points. The 300 most similar past games finished 73–17–10.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 88% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 9% and Middlesbrough at 3%.
Why is the draw only 9%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,777. Cup ties across divisions take 9.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Middlesbrough average 17 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 261 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Crystal Palace have shed 73 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,723 such games vs 34.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this League Cup fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Jørgen Strand Larsen's goal against Middlesbrough (53').
- Watch Daichi Kamada's goal against Middlesbrough (72').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Crystal Palace 3–0 Middlesbrough. Explore more on the Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough team pages or the League Cup page.