Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsUEFAUEFA.comMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 20′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Holding
- 27′Atalanta, yellow card:Tripping
- 39′Atalanta, yellow card:Holding
- Half-time
- 46′Atalanta, substitution:off
- 53′Kairat Almaty, goal:0–1assist
- 57′Atalanta, yellow card:Foul
- 58′Atalanta, substitution:off
- 58′Atalanta, substitution:off
- 63′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 63′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 67′Atalanta, substitution:off
- 73′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 74′Atalanta, substitution:off
- 82′Atalanta, goal:1–1assist
- 82′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 82′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 86′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Foul
- 88′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Foul
- 88′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Unsportsmanlike conduct
- Full-time1 – 1
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Atalanta
Kairat Almaty
Match report
Atalanta rescue a point against Kairat Almaty with late Krstovic equaliser
Atalanta and Kairat Almaty drew 1-1 at the New Balance Arena in a UEFA Europa Conference League league-stage match on matchday 3. Nikola Krstović struck eight minutes from time to cancel out Marc Gual's second-half opener, leaving the home side still without a win.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half passed without a goal, and the visitors made the breakthrough in the 53rd minute. Edmilson supplied the pass for Gual to put Kairat Almaty 1-0 ahead, a lead they protected for nearly half an hour despite spending most of the match without the ball.
Atalanta had 70% of the possession and 15 shots to 8, with seven on target to four, and won nine corners to two. Their pressure finally told in the 82nd minute, when Relja Obrić set up Krstović to level at 1-1. Atalanta are now without a win in six games, while Kairat Almaty are without a win in seven.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given the draw a 13% chance. Atalanta next travel to Monza in Serie A on Sunday, 8 November, while Kairat Almaty host Mjallby AIF in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, 26 November.
Relja Obrić was the top-rated player on the pitch at 8.7, creating the equaliser for Krstović. Gual, who scored Kairat Almaty's goal, and Temirlan Anarbekov each earned a rating of 8.3.
Atalanta won nine corners to two, underlining how much of the match was played in the visitors' half.
Atalanta and Kairat Almaty drew 1–1 (half-time 0–0).
Atalanta met Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Europa Conference League (League Stage - 3). Kick-off was Thursday, 5 November 2026, 17:45 UTC at New Balance Arena. Referee: Julian Weinberger.
Team pages: Atalanta · Kairat Almaty · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 53' Goal: Marc Gual (assist: Edmilson) — 0–1 · Watch Marc Gual's goal video (53')
- 82' Goal: Nikola Krstović (assist: Relja Obrić) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Atalanta (4-2-3-1)
Kairat Almaty (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Atalanta 81%, the draw 13%, Kairat Almaty 6%. It finished Atalanta 1–1 Kairat Almaty.
Atalanta's big strength edge drives a one-sided forecast — We give Atalanta 81% mainly because they sit 301 points higher on our strength rating, 1689 to 1388, and the usual home advantage adds to that. The draw sits at 13%, right at the usual draw rate for a strength gap this size, with nothing moving it up or down.
Why Atalanta at 81%?
Atalanta sit 301 points higher on our strength rating — 1689 to 1388. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.6% of 5,982 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 82–13–5.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 81% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 13% and Kairat Almaty at 6%.
Why is the draw only 13%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 12.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,348.
What did we measure but not count?
Atalanta have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Kairat Almaty in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Atalanta have shed 92 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,432 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Atalanta 1–1 Kairat Almaty. Explore more on the Atalanta and Kairat Almaty team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.