Alpendorada vs Mação — Taça de Portugal: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 4′Alpendorada, goal:1–0Goal
- 5′Alpendorada, goal:2–0Goal
- Half-time2 – 0
- 64′Alpendorada, goal:3–0Goal
- Full-time3 – 0
Match report
Alpendorada vs Mação — the facts
Alpendorada beat Mação 3–0 (half-time 2–0).
Alpendorada met Mação in the Taça de Portugal (Round of 128). Kick-off was Sunday, 20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Team pages: Alpendorada · Mação · Taça de Portugal
Key moments
- 4' Goal: — 1–0
- 5' Goal: — 2–0
- 64' Goal: — 3–0
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Alpendorada 85%, the draw 10%, Mação 5%. It finished Alpendorada 3–0 Mação.
Alpendorada's rating gap decides it — Alpendorada are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Alpendorada's 85%. The draw at 10% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Alpendorada at 85%?
Alpendorada sit 808 points higher on our strength rating — 1524 to 716. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge at home won 79.8% of 5,141 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 87–9–4.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 85% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 10% and Mação at 5%.
Why is the draw only 10%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 9.9%. Not enough recent scoring data to set the goals dial — the draw stays at the class table's rate.
What did we measure but not count?
Alpendorada arrive with 6 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Mação bring a 3-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least. Mação have 3 fully-tracked matches with us — under our usual 25-game bar — but their strength rating is anchored to the official international ratings list, which carries their full international history into the number. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Alpendorada vs Mação final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Taça de Portugal fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Alpendorada and Mação team pages or the Taça de Portugal page.