VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 — DFB Pokal: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 46′VfL Bochum, goal:1–0assist
- 63′VfL Bochum, substitution:off
- 63′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 63′VfL Bochum, substitution:off
- 63′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 63′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 64′FSV Mainz 05, yellow card:Foul
- 66′VfL Bochum, yellow card:Foul
- 71′VfL Bochum, substitution:off
- 75′VfL Bochum, goal:2–0assist
- 81′VfL Bochum, substitution:off
- 81′VfL Bochum, substitution:off
- 84′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 84′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 90+6′VfL Bochum, yellow card:Foul
- 90+7′VfL Bochum, yellow card:Argument
- Full-time2 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
VfL Bochum
FSV Mainz 05
Match report
VfL Bochum beat FSV Mainz 05 2-0 to reach DFB Pokal last 16
VfL Bochum won 2-0 at the Vonovia Ruhrstadion against FSV Mainz 05 in the DFB Pokal Round of 32, ending a run of 5 games without a win. Both goals came after the interval, with the sides goalless at half-time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Bochum needed no time to break the deadlock after the restart. Gerrit Holtmann supplied the cross for Christian Rasmussen to score in the 46th minute, and the hosts led 1-0 almost immediately. Mainz, managed by Urs Fischer, struggled to find a response.
The second goal arrived in the 75th minute, when Jarne Steuckers set up Philipp Hofmann to make it 2-0. The match was closely fought in terms of possession, with Mainz holding 52 per cent to Bochum's 48, and the visitors had nine shots to the hosts' eight, but Bochum's finishing proved decisive.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given VfL Bochum a 17% chance of winning. Bochum play away at Energie Cottbus in the 2. Bundesliga on Friday 30 October, while Mainz travel to SV Elversberg in the Bundesliga on the same day.
Christian Rasmussen scored the opening goal in the 46th minute and earned the highest rating of the match, 7.95. Michael Steinwender (7.79) and Jarne Steuckers (7.7), who assisted the second goal, were also among the top performers.
Bochum created chances of a higher quality than Mainz, with an expected goals figure of 1.44 to 0.52 despite taking fewer shots overall.
VfL Bochum beat FSV Mainz 05 2–0 (half-time 0–0).
VfL Bochum met FSV Mainz 05 in the DFB Pokal (Round of 32). Kick-off was Tuesday, 27 October 2026, 17:00 UTC at Vonovia Ruhrstadion. Referee: Michael Bacher.
Team pages: VfL Bochum · FSV Mainz 05 · DFB Pokal
Key moments
- 46' Goal: Christian Rasmussen (assist: Gerrit Holtmann) — 1–0
- 75' Goal: Philipp Hofmann (assist: Jarne Steuckers) — 2–0
Starting line-ups
VfL Bochum (4-2-3-1)
FSV Mainz 05 (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave VfL Bochum 17%, the draw 19%, FSV Mainz 05 64%. It finished VfL Bochum 2–0 FSV Mainz 05.
Mainz's stronger rating drives a clear lead — We give FSV Mainz 05 64% mainly because they sit 255 points higher on our strength rating, 1670 to 1414, which outweighs the usual home advantage VfL Bochum start with. The draw sits at 19%, starting from about 21% for a strength gap this size and nudged down because both teams' own recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why FSV Mainz 05 at 64%?
FSV Mainz 05 sit 255 points higher on our strength rating — 1670 to 1414. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,287 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 17–21–62.
Why only 64%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 64% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 19% and VfL Bochum at 17%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 20.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,446. The goals environment takes 1.8 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
A cup tie across divisions: FSV Mainz 05 carry a 255-point rating edge over VfL Bochum, who play their league football in a division below. We already have 377 rated matches for VfL Bochum. FSV Mainz 05 won 5 of the last 6 meetings with VfL Bochum. The record is 5 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 1 draw and 0 wins for VfL Bochum. These were 6 Bundesliga games played at both grounds between 6 August 2022 and 10 May 2025. FSV Mainz 05 are unbeaten in the last 6 meetings between the sides (5 wins, 1 draw), a run going back to August 2022. Latest meeting: 10 May 2025 — VfL Bochum 1–4 FSV Mainz 05. In 6,084 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this DFB Pokal fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05 team pages or the DFB Pokal page.