Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split — HNL: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsHNK Hajduk SplitYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 7′HNK Hajduk Split, goal:0–1assist
- 12′HNK Hajduk Split, yellow card:Argument
- 30′Istra 1961, yellow card:Foul
- 39′HNK Hajduk Split, yellow card:Argument
- 39′Istra 1961, yellow card:Argument
- Half-time0 – 1
- 51′Istra 1961, yellow card:Foul
- 54′HNK Hajduk Split, goal:0–2assist
- 60′Istra 1961, substitution:off
- 60′Istra 1961, substitution:off
- 60′Istra 1961, substitution:off
- 66′Istra 1961, goal:1–2assist
- 69′HNK Hajduk Split, substitution:off
- 70′Istra 1961, yellow card:Foul
- 76′HNK Hajduk Split, substitution:off
- 76′HNK Hajduk Split, substitution:off
- 81′Istra 1961, penalty goal:2–2Penalty
- 83′HNK Hajduk Split, substitution:off
- 83′HNK Hajduk Split, substitution:off
- 89′Istra 1961, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 2
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Istra 1961
HNK Hajduk Split
Match report
Istra 1961 come from two down to hold leaders HNK Hajduk Split
Istra 1961 recovered from two goals down to draw 2-2 with HNL leaders HNK Hajduk Split on Matchday 11 at Stadion Aldo Drosina. Hajduk had been in command for an hour, but two goals in the final 25 minutes cost them the win and ended a run of four straight victories.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Hajduk took the lead in the seventh minute, Khalil Fayad finishing from Dennis Hadžikadunić's assist, and they led 1-0 at the break. Michele Šego doubled the advantage in the 54th minute, converting a Fayad assist, and the visitors seemed to be heading for a fifth consecutive win.
Istra reduced the deficit in the 66th minute when Hamza Jaganjac scored from an Emil Frederiksen assist. Frederiksen then levelled from the penalty spot in the 81st minute. Hajduk held 56 per cent of the possession, with 14 shots to Istra's 13, and the game finished level on corners at four each.
The point left Hajduk top on 23 points, ten clear of sixth-placed Istra on 13. Both sides are in HNL action next Saturday: Hajduk are at home to HNK Gorica, while Istra travel to NK Slaven Belupo.
Khalil Fayad was the best-rated player on the pitch with 9.0, scoring the opener and setting up Michele Šego's second goal.
Hajduk Split had 56 per cent of the possession, yet they were pegged back to a draw.
Istra 1961 and HNK Hajduk Split drew 2–2 (half-time 0–1).
Istra 1961 met HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Monday, 26 October 2026, 17:00 UTC at Stadion Aldo Drosina. Referee: Patrik Kolarić.
Team pages: Istra 1961 · HNK Hajduk Split · HNL
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Khalil Fayad (assist: Dennis Hadžikadunić) — 0–1 · Watch Khalil Fayad's goal video (7')
- 54' Goal: Michele Šego (assist: Khalil Fayad) — 0–2 · Watch Michele Šego's goal video (54')
- 66' Goal: Hamza Jaganjac (assist: Emil Frederiksen) — 1–2
- 81' Goal (penalty): Emil Frederiksen — 2–2
Starting line-ups
Istra 1961 (4-4-2)
HNK Hajduk Split (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Istra 1961 24%, the draw 25%, HNK Hajduk Split 51%. It finished Istra 1961 2–2 HNK Hajduk Split.
Hajduk Split's stronger rating outweighs home advantage — We give HNK Hajduk Split 51% because our strength rating puts them 187 points higher, 1631 to 1444, which is more than Istra 1961's usual home advantage can make up. The draw sits at 25%, close to its usual rate for a gap this size, nudged down slightly by the 3.0 goals both sides' recent games average.
Why HNK Hajduk Split at 51%?
HNK Hajduk Split sit 187 points higher on our strength rating — 1631 to 1444. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.4% of 7,186 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 25–26–49.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Istra 1961 at 24%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.4%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,202.
What did we measure but not count?
HNK Hajduk Split have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Istra 1961 in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. HNK Hajduk Split scored +0.35 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,176 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.0% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this HNL fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Khalil Fayad's goal against Istra 1961 (7').
- Watch Michele Šego's goal against Istra 1961 (54').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Istra 1961 2–2 HNK Hajduk Split. Explore more on the Istra 1961 and HNK Hajduk Split team pages or the HNL page.