NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo — HNL: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsMAXSportYouTubeMatch Events
- 6′NK Varazdin, goal:1–0assist
- 37′NK Slaven Belupo, yellow card:Foul
- 37′NK Slaven Belupo, yellow card:Silvijo ČabrajaDissent
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′NK Varazdin, substitution:off
- 54′NK Varazdin, yellow card:Foul
- 63′NK Slaven Belupo, substitution:off
- 64′NK Varazdin, substitution:off
- 65′NK Varazdin, substitution:off
- 66′NK Slaven Belupo, goal:1–1assist
- 70′NK Slaven Belupo, goal:1–2assist
- 71′NK Varazdin, substitution:off
- 72′NK Varazdin, goal disallowed:Goal cancelled
- 79′NK Slaven Belupo, red card:Serious foul
- 84′NK Varazdin, substitution:off
- 90+1′NK Slaven Belupo, yellow card:Time wasting
- 90+2′NK Varazdin, yellow card:Dissent
- Full-time1 – 2
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NK Varazdin
NK Slaven Belupo
Match report
NK Slaven Belupo come from behind to beat NK Varazdin 2-1
NK Slaven Belupo won 2-1 away at NK Varazdin in HNL Matchday 11 at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec, turning the game round with two goals in five minutes in the second half. The result lifted the visitors from eighth to sixth in the table, and left them five points behind the hosts, who stayed third.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
NK Varazdin made the ideal start. Iuri Tavares scored in the sixth minute, set up by L. Posinkovic, and the hosts took that 1-0 lead into the interval. They dominated the shot count, with 15 attempts to eight, though the visitors stayed within a goal.
The match changed in the 66th minute, when Josip Mitrović equalised from a pass by Ilija Nestorovski. Four minutes later Lovre Banovec put NK Slaven Belupo ahead, again with Nestorovski providing the assist. Nestorovski was sent off in the 79th minute, leaving the visitors with ten men, but there were no further goals.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given NK Slaven Belupo a 19% chance of winning. Both sides are in HNL action next on Saturday 31 October: NK Varazdin travel to HNK Rijeka, while NK Slaven Belupo host Istra 1961.
Josip Mitrović, rated 7.26, was the top performer, scoring the 66th-minute equaliser that began the comeback. Iuri Tavares, who scored the opener for NK Varazdin, was close behind on 7.23.
NK Varazdin had 15 shots to eight for NK Slaven Belupo, yet still lost the match.
NK Slaven Belupo won 2–1 away against NK Varazdin (half-time 1–0).
NK Varazdin met NK Slaven Belupo in the HNL (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC at Stadion Varteks. Referee: A. Terzić.
Team pages: NK Varazdin · NK Slaven Belupo · HNL
Key moments
- 6' Goal: Iuri Tavares (assist: L. Posinkovic) — 1–0
- 66' Goal: Josip Mitrović (assist: Ilija Nestorovski) — 1–1
- 70' Goal: Lovre Banovec (assist: Ilija Nestorovski) — 1–2
- 79' Red card: Ilija Nestorovski
Starting line-ups
NK Varazdin (4-2-3-1)
NK Slaven Belupo (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave NK Varazdin 57%, the draw 24%, NK Slaven Belupo 19%. It finished NK Varazdin 1–2 NK Slaven Belupo.
Strength rating puts NK Varazdin clearly ahead — We give NK Varazdin 57% mainly because they sit 149 points higher on our strength rating, 1529 to 1379, with the usual home advantage adding to that edge. The draw sits at 24%, just under the usual 25% for a gap this size, as both sides' own recent games average 2.8 goals.
Why NK Varazdin at 57%?
NK Varazdin sit 149 points higher on our strength rating — 1529 to 1379. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 62–22–16.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and NK Slaven Belupo at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,159.
What did we measure but not count?
NK Varazdin are unbeaten in their last 12 home HNL games: 7 wins and 5 draws. The run began on 28 February 2026. It covers all 5 home HNL games this season. Last recorded home league defeat: 22 February 2026 — NK Varazdin 0–4 Dinamo Zagreb. Latest home league result: 19 September 2026 — NK Varazdin 0–0 NK Osijek. Across 16,094 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 55.4%, compared with 54.5% expected from team strength. In our recorded league results, NK Slaven Belupo are winless in their last 17 away games: 7 draws and 10 defeats. The run began on 8 November 2025. Last recorded away league win: 25 October 2025 — NK Varazdin 1–3 NK Slaven Belupo. Latest recorded away league result: 18 September 2026 — Rudes 2–2 NK Slaven Belupo. Across 14,191 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 24.4%, compared with 24.1% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this HNL fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from NK Varazdin 1–2 NK Slaven Belupo. Explore more on the NK Varazdin and NK Slaven Belupo team pages or the HNL page.