Fluminense vs Coritiba — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 24′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 30′Fluminense, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 49′Fluminense, goal:2–0assist
- 62′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 62′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 62′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 65′Fluminense, goal:3–0assist
- 74′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 74′Coritiba, substitution:off
- 79′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 79′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 79′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 86′Coritiba, yellow card:
- 89′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 90+3′Fluminense, goal:4–0assist
- Full-time4 – 0
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Fluminense
Coritiba
Match report
Savarino hat-trick fires Fluminense to 4-0 win over Coritiba
Fluminense beat Coritiba 4-0 at the Estádio do Maracanã in matchday 29 of the Brasileirão Série A, a result that left the hosts on 51 points in third place. Coritiba, managed by Fernando Seabra, remained ninth on 38 points after a heavy defeat.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Jefferson Savarino opened the scoring in the 30th minute, converting a Hulk assist to put Fluminense 1-0 up at half-time. Within four minutes of the restart he struck again, this time set up by Thiago Silva, and the lead was doubled in the 49th minute.
Savarino completed his hat-trick in the 65th minute, Kevin Serna providing the final pass to make it 3-0. Luciano Acosta added a fourth deep into stoppage time, in the 90+3 minute, with Wesley Natã the creator, sealing a comprehensive win for Marcão's side.
The contest was one-sided in how it was played. Fluminense held 69 per cent of the possession and had 22 shots to 8, while Coritiba failed to register a single shot on target in the 90 minutes.
Jefferson Savarino scored three of Fluminense's four goals and was rated 10.0, the highest mark of any performer. Hulk and Kevin Serna each supplied an assist, and both were rated above 7.6.
Fluminense put 10 shots on target to none for Coritiba, who never tested the home goalkeeper.
Fluminense beat Coritiba 4–0 (half-time 1–0).
Fluminense met Coritiba in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 29). Kick-off was Friday, 9 October 2026, 00:30 UTC at Estádio do Maracanã. Referee: Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima. Attendance: 15,056.
Team pages: Fluminense · Coritiba · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 30' Goal: Jefferson Savarino (assist: Hulk) — 1–0
- 49' Goal: Jefferson Savarino (assist: Thiago Silva) — 2–0
- 65' Goal: Jefferson Savarino (assist: Kevin Serna) — 3–0
- 90+3' Goal: Luciano Acosta (assist: Wesley Natã) — 4–0
Starting line-ups
Fluminense (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Fábio
- 13 Guilherme Arana
- 29 Julián Millán
- 3 Thiago Silva
- 23 Guga
- 8 Martinelli
- 35 Hércules
- 11 Jefferson Savarino
- 10 Ganso
- 90 Kevin Serna
- 7 Hulk
Coritiba (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Fluminense 61%, the draw 26%, Coritiba 13%. It finished Fluminense 4–0 Coritiba.
Fluminense's rating edge carries it — Fluminense are the stronger side on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage on top gives Fluminense a clear lead. The draw at 26% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Fluminense at 61%?
Fluminense sit 150 points higher on our strength rating — 1598 to 1448. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,326 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,464 games vs 44.6% across all 100,992 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 63–21–16.
Why only 61%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 61% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Coritiba at 13%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,112. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.5 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Fluminense have averaged 12 percentage points more possession than Coritiba in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Coritiba scored +0.65 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,821 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Fluminense vs Coritiba final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Fluminense 4–0 Coritiba. Explore more on the Fluminense and Coritiba team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.