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play_arrow2 clips- 12′Santos, yellow card:
- 34′Santos, yellow card:
- 36′Santos, yellow card:
- 41′Flamengo, yellow card:
- 43′Flamengo, goal:0–1assist
- 45+4′Flamengo, goal:0–2assist
- Half-time0 – 2
- 46′Santos, substitution:off
- 46′Santos, substitution:off
- 53′Santos, yellow card:
- 55′Flamengo, yellow card:
- 57′Santos, yellow card:
- 61′Santos, yellow card:
- 66′Santos, substitution:off
- 69′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 69′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 69′Santos, substitution:off
- 72′Santos, VAR review:Penalty confirmed
- 79′Flamengo, red card:
- 81′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 81′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 82′Santos, penalty goal:1–2Penalty
- 85′Flamengo, yellow card:
- 88′Santos, penalty goal:2–2Penalty
- 90+1′Flamengo, yellow card:
- Full-time2 – 2
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Santos
Flamengo
Match report
Neymar double earns Santos a point against leaders Flamengo
Santos drew 2-2 with Flamengo in the Brasileirão Série A on matchday 29, Neymar scoring two penalties in the last 10 minutes to rescue a point at the Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Flamengo had led 2-0 at the interval and finished the night with ten men.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Flamengo took control before the break. Danilo opened the scoring in the 43rd minute from a Pedro assist, and Lucas Paquetá doubled the lead in first-half stoppage time, in the 45+4 minute, after Jorge Carrascal supplied the pass. Santos went in at half-time two goals down.
The match turned in the 79th minute, when Jorginho was shown a red card for Flamengo. Santos took advantage after the numerical shift: Neymar converted from the penalty spot in the 82nd minute to make it 1-2, then stepped up again in the 88th to level at 2-2.
The result left Flamengo top of the table on 61 points after 29 games, while Santos sit eighth on 42. Santos extended their unbeaten run to six league matches, while Flamengo's five-match winning streak ended.
Neymar scored both of Santos's goals, each from the penalty spot, in the 82nd and 88th minutes, and earned a rating of 7.87, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Flamengo managed six shots on target to Santos's four despite having fewer attempts overall, as Santos took 16 shots to 12.
Santos and Flamengo drew 2–2 (half-time 0–2).
Santos met Flamengo in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 29). Kick-off was Thursday, 8 October 2026, 22:30 UTC at Estadio Urbano Caldeira. Referee: Anderson Daronco.
Team pages: Santos · Flamengo · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 43' Goal: Danilo (assist: Pedro) — 0–1
- 45+4' Goal: Lucas Paquetá (assist: Jorge Carrascal) — 0–2
- 79' Red card: Jorginho
- 82' Goal (penalty): Neymar — 1–2 · Watch Neymar's goal video (82')
- 88' Goal (penalty): Neymar — 2–2 · Watch Neymar's goal video (88')
Starting line-ups
Santos (4-4-1-1)
Flamengo (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Santos 35%, the draw 31%, Flamengo 34%. It finished Santos 2–2 Flamengo.
Anyone's game — Flamengo are the stronger side on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage is not enough to separate them. The draw at 31% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Santos at 35%?
Home ground, against the rating. Flamengo sit 156 points higher on our strength rating — 1562 to 1718. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,806 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,464 games vs 44.6% across all 100,992 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 35%?
Because Flamengo are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 31% and Flamengo at 34%.
Why the draw at 31%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,278. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.5 points. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Flamengo have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Santos in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Flamengo scored +0.68 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,821 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Santos vs Flamengo final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Santos 2–2 Flamengo. Explore more on the Santos and Flamengo team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.