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- 7′Palmeiras, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 61′Bahia, yellow card:
- 64′Palmeiras, yellow card:
- 65′Bahia, substitution:off
- 65′Bahia, substitution:off
- 65′Bahia, substitution:off
- 69′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 69′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 82′Bahia, substitution:off
- 82′Bahia, substitution:off
- 87′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 87′Bahia, yellow card:
- Full-time1 – 0
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Palmeiras
Bahia
Match report
Palmeiras edge Bahia 1-0 as early López goal holds
Palmeiras beat Bahia 1-0 at the Allianz Parque in matchday 29 of the Brasileirão Série A, a result that left the home side second in the table on 60 points from 29 matches. Bahia, managed by Rogério Ceni, stayed sixth on 46 points.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The decisive moment came in the seventh minute. José López put the hosts ahead, with Alexander Barboza credited with the assist, and the scoreline did not change again. Palmeiras went into the interval a goal to the good and protected that lead through the second half.
The numbers pointed to a lopsided contest in the home side's favour: Palmeiras had 26 shots to 10 and 11 on target to one, along with seven corners to three. Bahia held more of the ball, with 59 per cent possession to Palmeiras's 41 per cent, but that territory brought little reward in front of goal.
Discipline was not a major factor, with no red cards shown. Palmeiras committed nine fouls and received one yellow card, while Bahia conceded 12 fouls and collected two bookings. Abel Ferreira's side had drawn four of their previous five league matches before this win.
Bahia's Ronaldo earned the highest rating among the match's top performers at 9.05 despite finishing on the losing side. Palmeiras's Andreas Pereira (8.23) and Marlon Freitas (8.01) were the next best rated.
Palmeiras put 11 of their 26 shots on target, while Bahia managed just one on target from their 10 attempts.
Palmeiras beat Bahia 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Palmeiras met Bahia in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 29). Kick-off was Friday, 9 October 2026, 00:30 UTC at Nubank Parque. Referee: Braulio da Silva Machado.
Team pages: Palmeiras · Bahia · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 7' Goal: José López (assist: Alexander Barboza) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Palmeiras (3-4-2-1)
Bahia (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Palmeiras 59%, the draw 28%, Bahia 13%. It finished Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia.
Palmeiras' rating edge, but the draw is in play — Palmeiras are the stronger side on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage on top gives Palmeiras a clear lead. The draw at 28% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Palmeiras at 59%?
Palmeiras sit 156 points higher on our strength rating — 1698 to 1542. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,326 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,464 games vs 44.6% across all 100,992 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 57–25–18.
Why only 59%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 59% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Bahia at 13%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Bahia win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,278. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.5 points. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Palmeiras scored +0.76 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,821 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Palmeiras won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Bahia. The record is 4 wins for Palmeiras, 0 draws and 2 wins for Bahia. These were 6 Brasileirão Série A games played at both grounds between 28 October 2023 and 5 April 2026. Latest meeting: 5 April 2026 — Bahia 1–2 Palmeiras. In 5,173 historical matches between similarly rated teams, home sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 43.8%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Palmeiras vs Bahia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia. Explore more on the Palmeiras and Bahia team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.