New York Red Bulls vs 10.10.26 23:304 – 1Full Time
San Diego — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
New York Red Bulls race clear early to beat San Diego 4-1
New York Red Bulls beat San Diego 4-1 in Major League Soccer on Matchday 28 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, a result that lifted them to 36 points and 16th in the table. San Diego, on 32 points and 22nd, left with little to show for a second half in which they controlled the ball.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The match was effectively settled inside the opening half-hour. Julian Hall scored in the 15th minute from Jorge Ruvalcaba's assist, Devin Padelford doubled the lead five minutes later after Cade Cowell's pass, and Ruvalcaba himself made it 3-0 in the 27th minute, set up by Ronald Donkor. The hosts were three clear at the break.
San Diego pulled one back in the 60th minute when Cédric Bakambu finished from Anders Dreyer's assist, but the Red Bulls were not seriously threatened again. Eric Choupo-Moting added a fourth in the third minute of stoppage time, with M. Dos Santos providing the assist, to complete a five-goal match.
The numbers show a lopsided shape to the contest: San Diego held 63 per cent of the possession and won seven corners to four, yet the Red Bulls had 28 shots to 14 and put 12 of them on target to the visitors' five.
Jorge Ruvalcaba scored once and set up another, earning the highest rating of any player on the pitch at 8.47. His assist for Hall's opener and his own goal in the 27th minute bookended the Red Bulls' decisive first-half spell.
The Red Bulls had 12 shots on target to San Diego's five, despite having only 37 per cent of the possession.
New York Red Bulls beat San Diego 4–1 (half-time 3–0).
New York Red Bulls met San Diego in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 28). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 23:30 UTC at Sports Illustrated Stadium. Referee: Malik Badawi. Attendance: 18,937.
Team pages: New York Red Bulls · San Diego · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 15' Goal: Julian Hall (assist: Jorge Ruvalcaba) — 1–0 · Watch Julian Hall's goal video (15')
- 20' Goal: Devin Padelford (assist: Cade Cowell) — 2–0 · Watch Devin Padelford's goal video (20')
- 27' Goal: Jorge Ruvalcaba (assist: Ronald Donkor) — 3–0 · Watch Jorge Ruvalcaba's goal video (27')
- 60' Goal: Cédric Bakambu (assist: Anders Dreyer) — 3–1 · Watch Cédric Bakambu's goal video (60')
- 90+3' Goal: Eric Choupo-Moting (assist: M. Dos Santos) — 4–1 · Watch Eric Choupo-Moting's goal video (90+3')
Starting line-ups
New York Red Bulls (4-3-3)
San Diego (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave New York Red Bulls 38%, the draw 26%, San Diego 36%. It finished New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego.
Home ground outweighs San Diego's rating edge — San Diego are the stronger side on our strength rating, but Major League Soccer home advantage plus New York Red Bulls' cold finishing due to recover give New York Red Bulls the lean. The draw at 26% is down from the usual 27.7% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why New York Red Bulls at 38%?
Home ground, against the rating. San Diego sit 82 points higher on our strength rating — 1405 to 1488. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,810 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,207 games vs 44.6% across all 101,016 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. New York Red Bulls sit -0.81 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,497 such games where the class table expected 35.9%.
Why only 38%?
Because San Diego are the stronger side on our strength rating. San Diego hold 7 more possession points (56 to 49 in recent games) across a 82-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,609 such games where the class table expected 40.6%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,118. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
New York Red Bulls on 10 days' rest, San Diego on 13. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 42,036 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the New York Red Bulls vs San Diego final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Julian Hall's goal against San Diego (15').
- Watch Devin Padelford's goal against San Diego (20').
- Watch Jorge Ruvalcaba's goal against San Diego (27').
- Watch Cédric Bakambu's goal against New York Red Bulls (60').
- Watch Eric Choupo-Moting's goal against San Diego (90+3').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego. Explore more on the New York Red Bulls and San Diego team pages or the Major League Soccer page.