Crystal Palace vs 11.10.26 13:003 – 1Full Time
Nottingham Forest — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — the facts
Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3–1 (half-time 2–1).
Crystal Palace met Nottingham Forest in the Premier League (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at Selhurst Park. Referee: Peter Bankes.
Team pages: Crystal Palace · Nottingham Forest · Premier League
Key moments
- 3' Goal: Dan Ndoye — 0–1 · Watch Dan Ndoye's goal video (3')
- 41' Goal: Daichi Kamada (assist: Quinten Timber) — 1–1 · Watch Daichi Kamada's goal video (41')
- 45+4' Goal: Jefferson Lerma (assist: Adam Wharton) — 2–1 · Watch Jefferson Lerma's goal video (45+4')
- 59' Goal: Yeremy Pino — 3–1 · Watch Yeremy Pino's goal video (59')
Starting line-ups
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1)
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Crystal Palace 36%, the draw 29%, Nottingham Forest 35%. It finished Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest.
Level sides, home ground holds off Nottingham Forest's cold finishing due to recover — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Crystal Palace's 36% is home ground and little else. The draw at 29% is up from the usual 27.1% between sides this level, as small adjustments add up.
Why Crystal Palace in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1736 to 1754. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,803 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%).
Why only 36%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Nottingham Forest sit -0.59 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.5% of 1,364 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Crystal Palace's column. Across 11,278 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 29%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,145. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Nottingham Forest have shed 73 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,587 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Dean Henderson, a star player and Crystal Palace's first-choice goalkeeper. In the past games we have checked, a missing first-choice goalkeeper made no measurable difference, so this stays at 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Dan Ndoye's goal against Crystal Palace (3').
- Watch Daichi Kamada's goal against Nottingham Forest (41').
- Watch Jefferson Lerma's goal against Nottingham Forest (45+4').
- Watch Yeremy Pino's goal against Nottingham Forest (59').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest. Explore more on the Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest team pages or the Premier League page.