Aston Villa vs 10.10.26 14:002 – 2Full Time
Brentford — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Aston Villa vs Brentford — the facts
Aston Villa and Brentford drew 2–2 (half-time 1–1).
Aston Villa met Brentford in the Premier League (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Villa Park. Referee: Craig Pawson. Attendance: 36,636.
Team pages: Aston Villa · Brentford · Premier League
Key moments
- 10' Goal: Yehor Yarmolyuk — 0–1 · Watch Yehor Yarmolyuk's goal video (10')
- 12' Goal: Nicolas Jackson (assist: John McGinn) — 1–1 · Watch Nicolas Jackson's goal video (12')
- 77' Goal: John McGinn (assist: Johan Manzambi) — 2–1 · Watch John McGinn's goal video (77')
- 79' Goal: Kristoffer Ajer (assist: Jaidon Anthony) — 2–2 · Watch Kristoffer Ajer's goal video (79')
Starting line-ups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Brentford (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Aston Villa 48%, the draw 24%, Brentford 28%. It finished Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford.
Level sides, Brentford's hot finishing due to cool swings it Aston Villa's way — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Brentford's hot finishing due to cool gives Aston Villa the lean. The draw at 24% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Aston Villa in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1844 to 1819. Sides this close won 45.8% of 13,702 home games (draw 27.7%, visitors 26.6%). Brentford scored +0.38 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.2% of 1,447 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 48%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Aston Villa's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. Aston Villa scored +0.31 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.7% of 1,465 games, vs 27.7% against normal finishing.
Why the draw at 24%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Aston Villa come into this after a busy window — 11 arrivals, 11 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Doubtful: Nathan Collins and Mikkel Damsgaard, important players. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Aston Villa vs Brentford final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Yehor Yarmolyuk's goal against Aston Villa (10').
- Watch Nicolas Jackson's goal against Brentford (12').
- Watch John McGinn's goal against Brentford (77').
- Watch Kristoffer Ajer's goal against Aston Villa (79').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford. Explore more on the Aston Villa and Brentford team pages or the Premier League page.