Newcastle vs 17.10.26 16:300 – 1Full Time
Aston Villa — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Newcastle vs Aston Villa — the facts
Aston Villa won 1–0 away against Newcastle (half-time 0–1).
Newcastle met Aston Villa in the Premier League (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC at St James' Park. Referee: Jarred Gillett. Attendance: 52,626.
Team pages: Newcastle · Aston Villa · Premier League
Key moments
- 36' Goal: Johan Manzambi (assist: João Gomes) — 0–1 · Watch Johan Manzambi's goal video (36')
Starting line-ups
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Newcastle 36%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 38%. It finished Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa.
Villa's higher rating gives them a slight edge — Aston Villa sit 93 points higher on our strength rating, 1860 to 1766, which edges them in front at 38% to Newcastle's 36%, though Newcastle's habit of controlling the ball, 54 to 46 possession in recent games, pulls the other way. The draw sits at 26%, a little below the usual 28% for a gap this size, because both sides' own recent games average 3.5 goals.
Why Aston Villa at 38%?
Aston Villa sit 93 points higher on our strength rating — 1860 to 1766. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,846 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–31–36.
Why only 38%?
Newcastle hold 8 more possession points (54 to 46 in recent games) across a 93-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,639 such games where the class table expected 40.6%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,940. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Newcastle scored +0.31 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,843 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Aston Villa scored +0.34 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Newcastle vs Aston Villa final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa. Explore more on the Newcastle and Aston Villa team pages or the Premier League page.