Match report
Brentford vs Liverpool — the facts
Liverpool won 2–1 away against Brentford (half-time 1–0).
Brentford met Liverpool in the Premier League (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Gtech Community Stadium. Referee: John Brooks. Attendance: 17,232.
Team pages: Brentford · Liverpool · Premier League
Key moments
- 44' Goal: Keane Lewis-Potter (assist: Igor Thiago) — 1–0 · Watch Keane Lewis-Potter's goal video (44')
- 45+8' Red card: Yehor Yarmolyuk
- 62' Goal: Víctor Muñoz (assist: Florian Wirtz) — 1–1 · Watch Víctor Muñoz's goal video (62')
- 70' Goal: Alexander Isak (assist: Bradley Barcola) — 1–2 · Watch Alexander Isak's goal video (70')
Starting line-ups
Brentford (4-2-3-1)
Liverpool (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Brentford 39%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 35%. It finished Brentford 1–2 Liverpool.
Home advantage edges Brentford ahead of level Liverpool — Our strength rating has almost nothing between the sides, so Brentford's usual home advantage puts them narrowly in front at 39%, though Liverpool's greater share of the ball pulls the other way. The draw sits at 26%, starting from 27% for evenly matched sides and nudged down mainly because both teams' recent games average 3.3 goals.
Why Brentford in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1823 to 1852. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,828 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%).
Why only 39%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Liverpool hold 6 more possession points (56 to 50 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.8% across 5,486 games, from 44.0% when styles were level. Brentford scored +0.38 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,487 games, vs 27.7% against normal finishing.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,940. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Brentford are unbeaten in their last 8 home Premier League games: 3 wins and 5 draws. The run began on 16 March 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 21 February 2026 — Brentford 0–2 Brighton. Latest home league result: 18 September 2026 — Brentford 3–0 Chelsea. Across 13,724 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.0%, compared with 54.8% expected from team strength. Out: Ryan Gravenberch, an important player, and Hugo Ekitike, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Brentford vs Liverpool final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Keane Lewis-Potter's goal against Liverpool (44').
- Watch Víctor Muñoz's goal against Brentford (62').
- Watch Alexander Isak's goal against Brentford (70').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Brentford 1–2 Liverpool. Explore more on the Brentford and Liverpool team pages or the Premier League page.