Nottingham Forest vs 18.10.26 15:300 – 1Full Time
Arsenal — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal — the facts
Arsenal won 1–0 away against Nottingham Forest (half-time 0–0).
Nottingham Forest met Arsenal in the Premier League (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Sunday, 18 October 2026, 15:30 UTC at City Ground. Referee: Michael Oliver. Attendance: 30,893.
Team pages: Nottingham Forest · Arsenal · Premier League
Key moments
- 80' Goal: Noni Madueke (assist: Declan Rice) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1)
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Nottingham Forest 16%, the draw 24%, Arsenal 60%. It finished Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal.
Arsenal's strength edge drives a clear lead — We give Arsenal 60% mainly because they sit 289 points higher on our strength rating, 2028 to 1738, which outweighs the usual home advantage Nottingham Forest start with. The draw sits at 24%, close to the usual 23% for a gap this size, nudged up slightly because both sides' own recent games average 2.6 goals.
Why Arsenal at 60%?
Arsenal sit 289 points higher on our strength rating — 2028 to 1738. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 5,882 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 17–24–59.
Why only 60%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 60% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Nottingham Forest at 16%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 23.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,356. The goals environment adds 1.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Arsenal have averaged 9 percentage points more possession than Nottingham Forest in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Nottingham Forest have shed 67 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,621 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal. Explore more on the Nottingham Forest and Arsenal team pages or the Premier League page.