Match report
Fulham vs Hull City — the facts
Fulham beat Hull City 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Fulham met Hull City in the Premier League (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Craven Cottage. Referee: Chris Kavanagh. Attendance: 27,531.
Team pages: Fulham · Hull City · Premier League
Key moments
- 33' Goal: Alex Iwobi (assist: Sander Berge) — 1–0 · Watch Alex Iwobi's goal video (33')
- 90+4' Red card: Ryan Sessegnon
Starting line-ups
Fulham (4-2-3-1)
Hull City (5-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Fulham 70%, the draw 19%, Hull City 11%. It finished Fulham 1–0 Hull City.
Fulham's strength edge makes this one-sided — We give Fulham 70% mainly because our strength rating has them 198 points higher, 1714 to 1516, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw sits at 19%, close to the usual 18% for a gap this size, nudged up slightly because both sides' own recent games average 2.4 goals.
Why Fulham at 70%?
Fulham sit 198 points higher on our strength rating — 1714 to 1516. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,583 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 72–18–10.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 70% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 19% and Hull City at 11%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 18.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,340.
What did we measure but not count?
Fulham have averaged 21 percentage points more possession than Hull City in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Hull City have gained 103 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,205 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Fulham vs Hull City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Fulham 1–0 Hull City. Explore more on the Fulham and Hull City team pages or the Premier League page.