Brighton vs 18.10.26 13:005 – 0Full Time
Crystal Palace — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Brighton vs Crystal Palace — the facts
Brighton beat Crystal Palace 5–0 (half-time 3–0).
Brighton met Crystal Palace in the Premier League (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Sunday, 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at American Express Stadium. Referee: Robert Jones. Attendance: 31,440.
Team pages: Brighton · Crystal Palace · Premier League
Key moments
- 4' Goal (own goal): Jaydee Canvot — 1–0 · Watch Jaydee Canvot's goal video (4')
- 7' Goal: Diego Gómez (assist: Olivier Boscagli) — 2–0 · Watch Diego Gómez's goal video (7')
- 10' Goal: Yasin Ayari (assist: Charalampos Kostoulas) — 3–0 · Watch Yasin Ayari's goal video (10')
- 49' Goal: Charalampos Kostoulas — 4–0 · Watch Charalampos Kostoulas's goal video (49')
- 84' Goal: Jack Hinshelwood (assist: Luka Vušković) — 5–0 · Watch Jack Hinshelwood's goal video (84')
Starting line-ups
Brighton (4-2-3-1)
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Brighton 58%, the draw 23%, Crystal Palace 19%. It finished Brighton 5–0 Crystal Palace.
Strength rating puts Brighton clearly in front — Brighton sit 125 points higher on our strength rating, 1868 to 1743, and with the usual home advantage on top we give them 58% to Crystal Palace's 19%. The draw starts near 25%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 23% because both sides' own recent games average 3.5 goals.
Why Brighton at 58%?
Brighton sit 125 points higher on our strength rating — 1868 to 1743. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,368 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 62–20–18.
Why only 58%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 58% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Crystal Palace at 19%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,995. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Brighton have averaged 20 percentage points more possession than Crystal Palace in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Brighton scored +0.34 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,855 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Brighton vs Crystal Palace final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Jaydee Canvot's own goal video (4').
- Watch Diego Gómez's goal against Crystal Palace (7').
- Watch Yasin Ayari's goal against Crystal Palace (10').
- Watch Charalampos Kostoulas's goal against Crystal Palace (49').
- Watch Jack Hinshelwood's goal against Crystal Palace (84').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Brighton 5–0 Crystal Palace. Explore more on the Brighton and Crystal Palace team pages or the Premier League page.