Genk vs 15.08.26 18:453 – 2Full Time
KVC Westerlo — Jupiler Pro League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Genk vs KVC Westerlo — the facts
Genk beat KVC Westerlo 3–2 (half-time 2–2).
Genk met KVC Westerlo in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Saturday, 15 August 2026, 18:45 UTC at Cegeka Arena. Referee: Lawrence Visser.
Team pages: Genk · KVC Westerlo · Jupiler Pro League
Key moments
- 6' Goal: Drahgo Ourega (assist: Cameron Congreve) — 0–1
- 13' Goal (own goal): Matte Smets — 0–2
- 41' Goal (penalty): Rafiu Durosinmi — 1–2
- 43' Goal: Bryan Heynen (assist: Ayumu Yokoyama) — 2–2
- 79' Goal: Aaron Bibout — 3–2
Starting line-ups
Genk
KVC Westerlo
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Genk 66%, the draw 23%, KVC Westerlo 11%. It finished Genk 3–2 KVC Westerlo.
Genk's rating gap decides it — Genk are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover on top gives Genk a clear lead. The draw at 23% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Genk at 66%?
Genk sit 212 points higher on our strength rating — 1712 to 1499. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 5,926 such games. Genk sit -0.79 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,344 such games where the class table expected 36.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 69–22–9.
Why only 66%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Genk's column. Across 10,563 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,561. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
KVC Westerlo have shed 65 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,610 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Last 6 between them: Genk 5 wins, 1 draw, KVC Westerlo 0 wins. Most recently Genk 3–0 KVC Westerlo, 3 months ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 43.1% of 5035 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Genk vs KVC Westerlo final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Jupiler Pro League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Genk and KVC Westerlo team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Genk vs KVC Westerlo?
Genk beat KVC Westerlo 3–2 (half-time 2–2).
›Who scored in Genk vs KVC Westerlo?
Drahgo Ourega (6') for KVC Westerlo; Matte Smets (13') (own goal) for KVC Westerlo; Rafiu Durosinmi (41') (penalty) for Genk; Bryan Heynen (43') for Genk; Aaron Bibout (79') for Genk.
›Where can I watch Genk vs KVC Westerlo highlights?
This page carries the full match report, stats and lineups for Genk vs KVC Westerlo; goal clips are added as soon as official highlights are available.
›What is the head-to-head record between Genk and KVC Westerlo?
Genk and KVC Westerlo have met 10 times — 7 wins for Genk, 0 wins for KVC Westerlo and 3 draws.