OH Leuven vs Club Brugge KV — Jupiler Pro League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 17′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 26′Club Brugge KV, goal:0–1assist
- Half-time0 – 1
- 60′Club Brugge KV, goal:0–2assist
- 75′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 75′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 75′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 78′Club Brugge KV, substitution:off
- 78′Club Brugge KV, substitution:off
- 83′Club Brugge KV, goal:0–3assist
- 85′Club Brugge KV, substitution:off
- 86′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 87′Club Brugge KV, substitution:off
- 87′Club Brugge KV, substitution:off
- Full-time0 – 3
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
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Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
OH Leuven
Club Brugge KV
Match report
OH Leuven vs Club Brugge KV — the facts
Club Brugge KV won 3–0 away against OH Leuven (half-time 0–1).
OH Leuven met Club Brugge KV in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Saturday, 15 August 2026, 18:45 UTC at Den Dreef. Referee: Jasper Vergoote.
Team pages: OH Leuven · Club Brugge KV · Jupiler Pro League
Key moments
- 26' Goal: Mamadou Diakhon (assist: Carlos Forbs) — 0–1
- 60' Goal: Brandon Mechele (assist: Mamadou Diakhon) — 0–2
- 83' Goal: Nicolò Tresoldi (assist: Félix Lemaréchal) — 0–3
Starting line-ups
OH Leuven (3-4-3)
Club Brugge KV (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave OH Leuven 13%, the draw 18%, Club Brugge KV 69%. It finished OH Leuven 0–3 Club Brugge KV.
Club Brugge KV's rating gap outweighs OH Leuven's home ground — Club Brugge KV are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives Club Brugge KV a clear lead. The draw at 18% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Club Brugge KV at 69%?
Club Brugge KV sit 420 points higher on our strength rating — 1500 to 1920. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge on the road won 65.8% of 5,174 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims OH Leuven's column. Across 10,563 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 14–17–69.
Why only 69%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 69% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and OH Leuven at 13%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 16,913. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw. The goals environment takes 1.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Club Brugge KV average 9 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 420 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Club Brugge KV won all of the last 5 games between these sides. Head-to-head dominance hasn't carried forward beyond the rating: sides that won 4+ of the last 5 meetings won 55.6% of 9,194 next meetings vs 55.0% class-expected. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the OH Leuven vs Club Brugge KV final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Jupiler Pro League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the OH Leuven and Club Brugge KV team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.