KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 5′St. Truiden, yellow card:Foul
- 24′KV Mechelen, own goal:1–0Own goal
- 34′KV Mechelen, goal:2–0
- 39′KV Mechelen, own goal:3–0Own goal
- 42′St. Truiden, yellow card:Foul
- 44′St. Truiden, goal:3–1assist
- Half-time3 – 1
- 46′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 46′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 49′St. Truiden, goal:3–2
- 53′KV Mechelen, yellow card:Foul
- 62′KV Mechelen, goal:4–2assist
- 63′KV Mechelen, substitution:off
- 67′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 67′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 71′St. Truiden, goal:4–3
- 81′KV Mechelen, substitution:off
- 81′KV Mechelen, substitution:off
- 81′KV Mechelen, substitution:off
- 81′KV Mechelen, substitution:off
- 84′St. Truiden, yellow card:Foul
- 88′St. Truiden, yellow card:Foul
- 90+5′KV Mechelen, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time4 – 3
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
KV Mechelen
St. Truiden
Match report
KV Mechelen survive St. Truiden fightback to win seven-goal thriller
KV Mechelen beat St. Truiden 4-3 at Achter de Kazerne in a Jupiler Pro League Matchday 8 fixture that produced seven goals. The hosts, without a win in their previous five league games, led 3-0 inside 39 minutes, and two of those goals came from visiting defenders.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The opener arrived in the 24th minute when Kota Takai turned the ball into his own net. Simion Michez doubled the lead in the 34th minute, and Shogo Taniguchi put through his own goal in the 39th to make it 3-0 before the interval.
St. Truiden pulled one back in the 44th minute, Samed Baždar scoring from Ryan Merlen's assist, and Ilias Sebaoui made it 3-2 four minutes after the restart. Benito Raman restored the two-goal cushion in the 62nd minute, converting Kobe Corbanie's assist.
Frederic Soelle Soelle made it 4-3 in the 71st minute and set up a tense finish, but Mechelen held on. The result lifted them from 18th place before kick-off to 14th with six points, while St. Truiden stayed 12th on eight points.
Benito Raman scored the fourth goal, from Kobe Corbanie's assist, and earned the match's top rating of 7.7. Simion Michez also found the net and was rated 7.3.
St. Truiden dominated possession with 63 per cent of the ball, yet still lost.
KV Mechelen beat St. Truiden 4–3 (half-time 3–1).
KV Mechelen met St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 17:15 UTC at Achter de Kazerne. Referee: Bert Verbeke.
Team pages: KV Mechelen · St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League
Key moments
- 24' Goal (own goal): Kota Takai — 1–0
- 34' Goal: Simion Michez — 2–0
- 39' Goal (own goal): Shogo Taniguchi — 3–0
- 44' Goal: Samed Baždar (assist: Ryan Merlen) — 3–1
- 49' Goal: Ilias Sebaoui — 3–2
- 62' Goal: Benito Raman (assist: Kobe Corbanie) — 4–2
- 71' Goal: Frederic Soelle Soelle — 4–3
Starting line-ups
KV Mechelen (3-4-2-1)
St. Truiden (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave KV Mechelen 31%, the draw 26%, St. Truiden 43%. It finished KV Mechelen 4–3 St. Truiden.
St. Truiden's rating edge outweighs KV Mechelen's home ground — St. Truiden are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives St. Truiden the lean. The draw at 26% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why St. Truiden at 43%?
St. Truiden sit 115 points higher on our strength rating — 1437 to 1551. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,822 such games. St. Truiden hold 6 more possession points (54 to 48 in recent games) across a 115-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,622 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 35–25–40.
Why only 43%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 43% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and KV Mechelen at 31%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,880. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
St. Truiden won 5 of the last 6 meetings with KV Mechelen. The record is 5 wins for St. Truiden, 1 draw and 0 wins for KV Mechelen. These were 6 Jupiler Pro League games played between 8 November 2024 and 24 May 2026. Latest meeting: 24 May 2026 — St. Truiden 3–0 KV Mechelen. In 5,642 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.1%. St. Truiden play in Europe in 4 days — the classic minds-elsewhere worry. We checked, and no: league games in the four days before a European fixture ran +1.8 points above class expectation across 4,991 games — and the same clubs beat class by +2.1 in ordinary league weeks too (11,419-game control).
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Jupiler Pro League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the KV Mechelen and St. Truiden team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.