Blackburn vs Middlesbrough — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsMiddlesbrough FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 12′Middlesbrough, goal:0–1assist
- 24′Blackburn, yellow card:Foul
- 45+2′Blackburn, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time0 – 1
- 49′Blackburn, goal:1–1assist
- 55′Blackburn, goal:2–1
- 58′Blackburn, yellow card:Foul
- 60′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 60′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 61′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 61′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 69′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 69′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 76′Blackburn, yellow card:Foul
- 77′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 77′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 80′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 90′Middlesbrough, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time2 – 1
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Key Stats
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Blackburn
Middlesbrough
Match report
Blackburn come from behind to sink Middlesbrough at Ewood Park
Blackburn overturned an early deficit to beat Middlesbrough 2-1 in a Championship round two fixture at Ewood Park, a result that lifted Tony Mowbray's side to fifth in the table while Kim Hellberg's Middlesbrough remain 12th.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Jeremy Sarmiento put the visitors ahead in the 12th minute, finishing off an assist from Morgan Whittaker to send Middlesbrough in 1-0 up at half-time despite Blackburn dominating territory. The hosts responded quickly after the break, with Andri Guðjohnsen levelling in the 49th minute from a Harry Pickering assist before Todd Cantwell put Blackburn in front just six minutes later.
Blackburn held a commanding 66% share of possession and struck six shots to Middlesbrough's four, though the visitors were sharper in front of goal with three shots on target against Blackburn's one. Tom Reeves booked two Blackburn players during a match in which Middlesbrough, despite conceding twice, never trailed by more than a single goal.
Jeremy Sarmiento scored the opening goal for Middlesbrough and finished with a rating of 7.9, level with teammate Luke Ayling as the visitors' top performers on the day.
Blackburn's 66% possession share underlined their control of the ball despite falling behind early on.
Blackburn beat Middlesbrough 2–1 (half-time 0–1).
Blackburn met Middlesbrough in the Championship (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Saturday, 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC at Ewood Park. Referee: Tom Reeves.
Team pages: Blackburn · Middlesbrough · Championship
Key moments
- 12' Goal: Jeremy Sarmiento (assist: Morgan Whittaker) — 0–1 · Watch Jeremy Sarmiento's goal video (12')
- 49' Goal: Andri Guðjohnsen (assist: Harry Pickering) — 1–1
- 55' Goal: Todd Cantwell — 2–1
Starting line-ups
Blackburn (4-2-3-1)
Middlesbrough (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Blackburn 29%, the draw 37%, Middlesbrough 34%. It finished Blackburn 2–1 Middlesbrough.
Middlesbrough's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Middlesbrough are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus the early-season home fade on top give Middlesbrough the lean. The draw at 37% is the likeliest single result, lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Middlesbrough at 34%?
Middlesbrough sit 96 points higher on our strength rating — 1470 to 1565. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,522 such games. Middlesbrough sit -0.42 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.6% of 1,312 games, vs 28.9% for visitors finishing normally. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Blackburn's column. Across 10,641 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 37–35–28.
Why only 34%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 34% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 37% and Blackburn at 29%.
Why is the draw the likeliest result?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,110. The goals environment adds 4.0 points to the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Middlesbrough average 17 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 96 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Blackburn have gained 65 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.5% of 12,189 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Blackburn vs Middlesbrough final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Blackburn 2–1 Middlesbrough. Explore more on the Blackburn and Middlesbrough team pages or the Championship page.