Match report
QPR beat Derby 4-1 to end winless run at Loftus Road
QPR ended a run of five games without a win by beating Derby 4-1 at Loftus Road in the Championship on Matchday 10. Three goals before the interval settled the contest, and the hosts climbed from ninth to fifth in the table.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Alfie Lloyd opened the scoring in the 18th minute, converting a chance created by Boy Kemper. Four minutes later Nicolas Madsen added a second from the penalty spot, and Harvey Vale made it 3-0 on 45 minutes, leaving Derby with a mountain to climb at half-time.
Paul Smyth extended the lead in the 68th minute, finishing from Madsen's assist for a fourth. Derby, who are now without a win in six games, found a consolation in the 90+10 minute through Lars-Jørgen Salvesen, but it came far too late to matter. The visitors stayed 23rd on six points.
QPR landed seven of their nine shots on target against six of Derby's 15. Next, QPR travel to Birmingham on Saturday 17 October in the Championship, while Derby host Stoke City on the same day.
Alfie Lloyd scored the opening goal after 18 minutes and earned the highest rating on the pitch, 7.89. Salvesen's late strike for Derby was also rated 7.8.
QPR put seven of their nine shots on target, while Derby managed six from 15.
QPR beat Derby 4–1 (half-time 3–0).
QPR met Derby in the Championship (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Loftus Road. Referee: Matthew Corlett.
Team pages: QPR · Derby · Championship
Key moments
- 18' Goal: Alfie Lloyd (assist: Boy Kemper) — 1–0 · Watch Alfie Lloyd's goal video (18')
- 22' Goal (penalty): Nicolas Madsen — 2–0 · Watch Nicolas Madsen's goal video (22')
- 45' Goal: Harvey Vale — 3–0 · Watch Harvey Vale's goal video (45')
- 68' Goal: Paul Smyth (assist: Nicolas Madsen) — 4–0 · Watch Paul Smyth's goal video (68')
- 90' Goal: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen — 4–1 · Watch Lars-Jørgen Salvesen's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
QPR (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Pierce Charles
- 12 Boy Kemper
- 5 Ronnie Edwards
- 3 Jimmy Dunne (c)
- 2 Kealey Adamson
- 18 Glen Kamara
- 24 Nicolas Madsen
- 15 Alfie Lloyd
- 20 Harvey Vale
- 11 Paul Smyth
- 26 Rayan Kolli
Derby (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave QPR 43%, the draw 31%, Derby 26%. It finished QPR 4–1 Derby.
Home advantage gives QPR a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1398 to 1385, the usual home advantage puts QPR in front at 43%, though home sides in the Championship tend to under-perform, which trims that edge in Derby's favour. The draw sits at 31%, up from a usual 28% because Championship games draw more often and both teams' recent games average 2.4 goals.
Why QPR in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1398 to 1385. Sides this close won 45.8% of 13,718 home games (draw 27.6%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 43%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,470 games vs 44.6% across all 101,177 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Derby win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,318. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
QPR sit -0.37 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Out: Charles Taylor, a star player, Matthew Clarke, an important player, Patrick Agyemang and Derry Murkin, on provisional ratings, and Jacob Widell Zetterström, not yet rated. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the QPR vs Derby final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Alfie Lloyd's goal against Derby (18').
- Watch Nicolas Madsen's goal against Derby (22').
- Watch Harvey Vale's goal against Derby (45').
- Watch Paul Smyth's goal against Derby (68').
- Watch Lars-Jørgen Salvesen's goal against QPR (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from QPR 4–1 Derby. Explore more on the QPR and Derby team pages or the Championship page.