Match report
Ronald's 90th-minute winner keeps Swansea top at Millwall
Swansea won 1-0 at Millwall in a Championship Matchday 10 fixture at The Den, with Ronald scoring in the 90th minute to settle a contest that had stayed goalless through the first half and most of the second. Joseph Okopu provided the assist for the only goal of the evening.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Millwall had the greater share of the ball, finishing with 62% possession against 38%, and won 13 corners to 1. They also put four shots on target to Swansea's two. Swansea, though, had more efforts overall, 14 shots to 8, and the expected-goals figures of 1.85 to 1.09 reflected the better of the clearer chances falling to the visitors.
The late goal gave Swansea their fourth win in a row, and they moved from 20 points to 23 and stayed first in the table after ten matches. Millwall, who started the night ninth with 14 points from nine games, remained on 14 and slipped to 11th. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Swansea a 30% chance of winning. Both sides are at home next Saturday, 17 October in the Championship: Millwall face Lincoln, while Swansea host West Ham.
Ronald scored the only goal, in the 90th minute, and was the highest-rated player on the pitch with 7.7. Benjamin Cabango (7.47) and Jenson Seelt (7.34), also of Swansea, followed him in the ratings.
Millwall won 13 corners to Swansea's 1 yet still lost, with the territorial pressure failing to produce a goal.
Swansea won 1–0 away against Millwall (half-time 0–0).
Millwall met Swansea in the Championship (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Tuesday, 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at The Den. Referee: Edward Duckworth.
Team pages: Millwall · Swansea · Championship
Key moments
- 90' Goal: Ronald (assist: Joseph Opoku) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Millwall (4-1-4-1)
Swansea (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Millwall 40%, the draw 30%, Swansea 30%. It finished Millwall 0–1 Swansea.
Home advantage gives Millwall a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1483 to 1488, the usual home advantage puts Millwall in front at 40%, though weaker home advantage across the Championship pulls a little towards Swansea. The draw starts at 27% for sides this level and rises to 30%, lifted by the usual Championship draw rate and both teams' recent games averaging 2.7 goals.
Why Millwall in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1483 to 1488. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,812 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%).
Why only 40%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,462 games vs 44.6% across all 101,160 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, level with the Swansea win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,315. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
A 16-point possession gap between near-equal sides is unusual. Gaps this extreme are too rare to receipt — around 366 measured games, under our 300-game floor — so it's noted at 0 points. In our recorded league results, Swansea are winless in their last 8 away games: 4 draws and 4 defeats. The run began on 13 January 2018. Last recorded away league win: 30 December 2017 — Watford 1–2 Swansea. Latest recorded away league result: 5 May 2018 — Bournemouth 1–0 Swansea. Across 13,751 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 25.6%, compared with 25.0% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Millwall vs Swansea final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Millwall 0–1 Swansea. Explore more on the Millwall and Swansea team pages or the Championship page.