Bristol City vs 13.10.26 18:450 – 1Full Time
Blackburn — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Blackburn edge Bristol City after Afolayan's first-half strike
Blackburn won 1-0 away to Bristol City in Championship Matchday 10 at Ashton Gate Stadium, taking all three points despite being heavily outshot. The only goal came in the 38th minute and was enough to lift Tony Mowbray's side from 13th to seventh in the table.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Oladapo Afolayan scored it, finishing after a pass from Sean McLoughlin, and the visitors led 1-0 at the interval. That was the end of the scoring: Blackburn held their advantage through the second half without a card being shown to either side.
Bristol City dominated the ball, with 56% possession, and had 20 shots to 3, seven of them on target against one. They also won 10 corners to 5, yet Michael Skubala's team found no way past Blackburn's defence and dropped from 11th to 12th.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Blackburn a 30% chance of winning. Both sides are in Championship action on Saturday 17 October, Bristol City at home to Sheffield Utd and Blackburn away to West Brom.
Oladapo Afolayan scored the decisive goal in the 38th minute and earned a rating of 8.03, the highest of any player in the match. Sean McLoughlin, who supplied the assist, was next on 7.74.
Bristol City had 20 shots to Blackburn's 3, but still lost.
Blackburn won 1–0 away against Bristol City (half-time 0–1).
Bristol City met Blackburn in the Championship (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Tuesday, 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Ashton Gate Stadium. Referee: David Webb.
Team pages: Bristol City · Blackburn · Championship
Key moments
- 38' Goal: Oladapo Afolayan (assist: Sean McLoughlin) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Bristol City (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Sam Tickle
- 3 Cameron Pring
- 5 Robert Atkinson
- 2 Lisav Eissat
- 19 George Tanner
- 27 Gibson Yah
- 12 Jason Knight (c)
- 10 Scott Twine
- 20 Sam Greenwood
- 17 Jed Wallace
- 23 Dom Ballard
Blackburn (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bristol City 44%, the draw 26%, Blackburn 30%. It finished Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn.
Home advantage gives Bristol City a slight lean — With the sides level at 1403 on our strength rating, the usual home advantage puts Bristol City in front at 44%, helped by Blackburn's recent scoring above their chances, a streak that tends to cool off. The draw sits at 26%, down from a usual 27.1% because of that finishing streak, though the Championship's higher draw rate pulls it back up.
Why Bristol City in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1403 to 1403. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,812 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%). Blackburn scored +0.33 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.2% of 1,458 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 44%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,462 games vs 44.6% across all 101,160 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,166. The cool-off factor takes 2.5 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Bristol City have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Bristol City are 1 game into a new manager (M. Skubala), appointed 3 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bristol City vs Blackburn final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn. Explore more on the Bristol City and Blackburn team pages or the Championship page.