Lincoln vs Birmingham — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsLincoln City FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow4 clips- 16′Birmingham, goal:0–1
- 25′Lincoln, yellow card:Foul
- 27′Birmingham, yellow card:Time wasting
- 32′Birmingham, yellow card:Foul
- 35′Lincoln, yellow card:Tom William ShawDissent
- 42′Lincoln, yellow card:
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 59′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 59′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 60′Birmingham, goal:0–2assist
- 63′Lincoln, goal:1–2assist
- 66′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 73′Birmingham, goal:1–3assist
- 74′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 74′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 75′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 75′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 84′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 88′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 89′Lincoln, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 3
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Player Ratings
Lincoln
Birmingham
Match report
Priske double lifts Birmingham to 3-1 win at Lincoln
Birmingham won 3-1 at Sincil Bank in the Championship on Matchday 13, with August Priske scoring twice to move his side up from seventh to third. Lincoln, who had gone into the game 15th, finished the day 16th and eight points behind their visitors.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Priske opened the scoring in the 16th minute, and Birmingham led 1-0 at half-time. The same player doubled the lead in the 60th minute from Christoph Klarer's assist, only for Lincoln to answer within three minutes. Mikkel Ladefoged set up Tom Bayliss to make it 1-2 in the 63rd.
The hosts' hopes of a recovery lasted ten minutes. Alex Cochrane struck in the 73rd minute, with Ryan Allsop providing the assist, to restore a two-goal cushion at 3-1, and Birmingham saw the game out. Lincoln had 54% of the possession, but Birmingham managed 17 shots to 12.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Birmingham a 26% chance of winning. Birmingham next host Millwall in the Championship on Tuesday, while Lincoln travel to Watford the same day.
August Priske scored twice, in the 16th and 60th minutes, and earned a rating of 8.88, the highest of any player on the pitch. Ladefoged's assist for Lincoln's goal was the best of the home side's work.
Birmingham had 17 shots to Lincoln's 12 despite seeing less of the ball.
Birmingham won 3–1 away against Lincoln (half-time 0–1).
Lincoln met Birmingham in the Championship (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off was Saturday, 31 October 2026, 12:30 UTC at Sincil Bank. Referee: Lewis Smith.
Team pages: Lincoln · Birmingham · Championship
Key moments
- 16' Goal: August Priske — 0–1 · Watch August Priske's goal video (16')
- 60' Goal: August Priske (assist: Christoph Klarer) — 0–2 · Watch August Priske's goal video (60')
- 63' Goal: Tom Bayliss (assist: Mikkel Ladefoged) — 1–2 · Watch Tom Bayliss's goal video (63')
- 73' Goal: Alex Cochrane (assist: Ryan Allsop) — 1–3 · Watch Alex Cochrane's goal video (73')
Starting line-ups
Lincoln (4-2-3-1)
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Lincoln 45%, the draw 29%, Birmingham 26%. It finished Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham.
Lincoln's edge on strength, trimmed by Birmingham's possession — Lincoln lead at 45% because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1517 to 1473, on top of the usual home advantage, though Birmingham's habit of controlling the ball pulls the other way. The draw sits at 29%, up from a usual 27%, raised by the Championship's higher draw rate and one side's control of the ball.
Why Lincoln at 45%?
Lincoln sit 45 points higher on our strength rating — 1517 to 1473. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,106 such games.
Why only 45%?
Birmingham hold 12 more possession points (49 to 37 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.8% across 5,938 games, from 44.0% when styles were level. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,500 games vs 44.6% across all 108,210 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Birmingham win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,247. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Lincoln are 2 games into a new manager (Chris Cohen), appointed 14 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Last five: Lincoln L-L-L-D-W, Birmingham D-W-W-W-L — Birmingham are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.9% of 2031 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3929 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Lincoln vs Birmingham final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch August Priske's goal against Lincoln (16').
- Watch August Priske's goal against Lincoln (60').
- Watch Tom Bayliss's goal against Birmingham (63').
- Watch Alex Cochrane's goal against Lincoln (73').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham. Explore more on the Lincoln and Birmingham team pages or the Championship page.