HighlightsEFLYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 46′Watford, goal:1–0assist
- 47′Lincoln, yellow card:Dissent
- 50′Watford, yellow card:Not retreating
- 56′Watford, yellow card:Foul
- 60′Watford, substitution:off
- 61′Watford, substitution:off
- 61′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 61′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 70′Watford, substitution:off
- 70′Watford, substitution:off
- 70′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 79′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 79′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 80′Watford, yellow card:Foul
- 86′Watford, substitution:off
- 88′Watford, yellow card:Argument
- 88′Lincoln, yellow card:Argument
- 90′Watford, yellow card:Time wasting
- Full-time1 – 0
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Watford
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Match report
Mavididi strikes at the restart to give Watford 1-0 win over Lincoln
Watford beat Lincoln 1-0 at Vicarage Road in a Championship Matchday 14 fixture, a result that lifted them out of the bottom places. Stephy Mavididi scored the only goal in the 46th minute, finishing from an assist by Myron Boadu just after the second half began.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half ended goalless, with neither side able to turn territory or possession into a breakthrough. Watford then struck almost immediately after the interval, and that goal proved decisive. Lincoln, managed by Chris Cohen, were left to chase the game and never found an equaliser.
Watford held 59 per cent of the ball and had 18 shots to 12, though only two of those efforts were on target. Lincoln managed one on target from their dozen attempts. Watford committed 17 fouls to Lincoln's 10 and collected five yellow cards to their opponents' two, and no one was sent off.
The win took Watford to 14 points from 14 games, moving them from 21st to 20th, while Lincoln slipped from 16th to 17th on 15 points. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Watford a 24% chance of winning. Both sides are back in action on Saturday: Watford host Middlesbrough and Lincoln travel to QPR, both in the Championship.
Mavididi scored the winner and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 8.17. Federico Ravaglia, rated 7.4, and Marc Bola, on 7.32, followed him among Watford's top performers.
Watford had 18 shots to Lincoln's 12, yet only two of them found the target.
Watford beat Lincoln 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Watford met Lincoln in the Championship (Regular Season - 14). Kick-off was Tuesday, 3 November 2026, 19:45 UTC at Vicarage Road. Referee: James Bell.
Team pages: Watford · Lincoln · Championship
Key moments
- 46' Goal: Stephy Mavididi (assist: Myron Boadu) — 1–0 · Watch Stephy Mavididi's goal video (46')
Starting line-ups
Watford (4-2-3-1)
Lincoln (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Watford 24%, the draw 28%, Lincoln 48%. It finished Watford 1–0 Lincoln.
Lincoln's stronger rating gives them the edge — Lincoln sit 226 points higher on our strength rating, 1495 to 1268, which outweighs Watford's usual home advantage, and home sides in the Championship tend to under-perform anyway, so we give Lincoln 48%. The draw at 28% starts from the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged up by the Championship's draw rate and slightly down by typical scoring.
Why Lincoln at 48%?
Lincoln sit 226 points higher on our strength rating — 1495 to 1268. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.5% of 7,212 such games. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,511 games vs 44.6% across all 108,367 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 26–28–46.
Why only 48%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 48% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Watford at 24%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Watford win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,303. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Watford have averaged 9 percentage points more possession than Lincoln in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Lincoln have shed 67 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,426 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Watford vs Lincoln final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Watford 1–0 Lincoln. Explore more on the Watford and Lincoln team pages or the Championship page.