Wrexham vs Middlesbrough — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsEFLYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 60′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 60′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 60′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 62′Wrexham, yellow card:Foul
- 70′Wrexham, goal:1–0assist
- 72′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 77′Wrexham, substitution:off
- 77′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 83′Wrexham, substitution:off
- 84′Wrexham, goal:2–0assist
- Full-time2 – 0
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Key Stats
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Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Match report
Wrexham end Middlesbrough's unbeaten run with 2-0 win
Wrexham beat Championship leaders Middlesbrough 2-0 at the Racecourse Ground on matchday 14, ending the visitors' run of eight games unbeaten. The home side, who had lost three of their previous five, needed until the 70th minute to break the deadlock after a goalless first half.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
George Thomason broke the stalemate on 70 minutes, converting a Kieffer Moore assist to make it 1-0. Middlesbrough, who had arrived with four wins from their last five, found no way back, and Oliver Rathbone sealed the points in the 84th minute from a Lewis O'Brien assist.
Middlesbrough had far more of the ball, with 62 per cent possession to Wrexham's 38 per cent, yet Wrexham had 15 shots to 12 and four on target to two. Referee Oliver Langford showed one yellow card in the match, to a Wrexham player.
The result lifted Wrexham from 19th to 16th on 17 points, while Middlesbrough stayed top on 28 points. Both sides are back in action on Saturday: Wrexham host Wolves, and Middlesbrough travel to Watford, both in the Championship.
George Thomason scored the opening goal on 70 minutes and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 8.2. Kieffer Moore and Lewis O'Brien each provided an assist.
Middlesbrough held 62 per cent of possession but lost, with Wrexham having four shots on target to their two.
Wrexham beat Middlesbrough 2–0 (half-time 0–0).
Wrexham met Middlesbrough in the Championship (Regular Season - 14). Kick-off was Wednesday, 4 November 2026, 19:45 UTC at Racecourse Ground. Referee: Oliver Langford.
Team pages: Wrexham · Middlesbrough · Championship
Key moments
- 70' Goal: George Thomason (assist: Kieffer Moore) — 1–0 · Watch George Thomason's goal video (70')
- 84' Goal: Oliver Rathbone (assist: Lewis O'Brien) — 2–0 · Watch Oliver Rathbone's goal video (84')
Starting line-ups
Wrexham (3-5-1-1)
Middlesbrough (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Wrexham 32%, the draw 27%, Middlesbrough 41%. It finished Wrexham 2–0 Middlesbrough.
Middlesbrough's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Middlesbrough sit 129 points higher on our strength rating, 1553 to 1424, and Championship home sides generally get less from home advantage than the norm, so we give them 41% to Wrexham's 32%. The draw sits at 27%, near its usual 28% for this gap, as high-scoring recent games for both sides pull it down while the Championship's usual draw rate pushes it back up.
Why Middlesbrough at 41%?
Middlesbrough sit 129 points higher on our strength rating — 1553 to 1424. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,865 such games. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,520 games vs 44.6% across all 108,387 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 32–27–41.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Wrexham at 32%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,720. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Middlesbrough have averaged 10 percentage points more possession than Wrexham in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Middlesbrough won 1 of the last 3 meetings with Wrexham. The record is 1 win for Middlesbrough, 2 draws and 0 wins for Wrexham. These were 2 Championship games and 1 League Cup game played at both grounds between 25 October 2025 and 7 August 2026. Latest meeting: 7 August 2026 — Middlesbrough 1–0 Wrexham. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Wrexham vs Middlesbrough final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch George Thomason's goal against Middlesbrough (70').
- Watch Oliver Rathbone's goal against Middlesbrough (84').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Wrexham 2–0 Middlesbrough. Explore more on the Wrexham and Middlesbrough team pages or the Championship page.