Toluca vs Los Angeles FC — Leagues Cup: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 30′Los Angeles FC, yellow card:
- Half-time
- 56′Toluca, yellow card:
- 57′Los Angeles FC, substitution:off
- 57′Los Angeles FC, substitution:off
- 59′Toluca, substitution:off
- 64′Toluca, yellow card:
- 68′Los Angeles FC, substitution:off
- 68′Los Angeles FC, substitution:off
- 72′Toluca, substitution:off
- 73′Toluca, substitution:off
- 81′Toluca, substitution:off
- 81′Toluca, substitution:off
- 84′Los Angeles FC, substitution:off
- 90′Los Angeles FC, goal:0–1
- Full-time0 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Toluca
Los Angeles FC
Match report
Segura's stoppage-time header sinks Toluca in Leagues Cup group clash
Los Angeles FC edged Toluca 1-0 in a Leagues Cup Group Stage fixture at BMO Stadium, settled by a single goal deep into stoppage time after the two sides had cancelled each other out for long spells. The scoreline stayed blank at half-time despite both teams probing for openings.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The deadlock finally broke in the 90+1st minute when Eddie Segura struck to move the score to 0-1, sending the away side's bench into celebration and denying Toluca a share of the points on home soil. There was no further response, the goal arriving too late for Toluca to find an equaliser.
Los Angeles FC shaded the shot count with 15 attempts to Toluca's 10, including four on target compared to three, while possession was shared evenly at 50 per cent apiece. The visitors also won five corners to Toluca's two, reflecting their greater territorial threat in the closing stages even as the game remained tightly fought throughout.
Segura not only scored the decisive late goal but did so with the match's highest rating of 8.2, capping a telling contribution from the back.
Los Angeles FC's 15 shots to Toluca's 10 underlined their greater attacking thrust despite the sides sharing possession equally.
Los Angeles FC won 1–0 away against Toluca (half-time 0–0).
Toluca met Los Angeles FC in the Leagues Cup (Group Stage). Kick-off was Sunday, 9 August 2026, 03:10 UTC at BMO Stadium. Referee: V. Cáceres.
Team pages: Toluca · Los Angeles FC · Leagues Cup
Key moments
- 90' Goal: Eddie Segura — 0–1 · Watch Eddie Segura's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Toluca (3-4-2-1)
Los Angeles FC (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Toluca 28%, the draw 25%, Los Angeles FC 47%. It finished Toluca 0–1 Los Angeles FC.
Los Angeles FC's rating edge on neutral ground — Los Angeles FC are the stronger side on our strength rating, and neutral ground on top gives Los Angeles FC the lean. The draw at 25% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Los Angeles FC at 47%?
Los Angeles FC sit 138 points higher on our strength rating — 1590 to 1728. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 13,019 such games. Leagues Cup is played on neutral grounds: Toluca are the listed home side but get none of the usual home lift, so the class read is re-centred. On grounds we detect as neutral, listed-home sides won 44.6% of 26,852 games vs 45.2% at real homes — so a tournament game away from a side's own ground scores the class edge venue-free, as the average of the home and away reads.
Why only 47%?
Toluca hold 7 more possession points (54 to 47 in recent games) across a 138-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,562 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 16,858. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw. Neutral ground takes 1.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Los Angeles FC scored +0.50 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,741 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Los Angeles FC have played 3+ games in the last two weeks; their opponents haven't. Between equals, congested home sides won 46.9% of 2413 measured games and congested visitors 28.2% of 2454 — the cells disagree with each other and with the flat rest table, so schedule stays a watch item at 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Toluca vs Los Angeles FC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Leagues Cup fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Toluca 0–1 Los Angeles FC. Explore more on the Toluca and Los Angeles FC team pages or the Leagues Cup page.