SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 26′SC Freiburg, goal:0–1
- 38′SC Paderborn 07, yellow card:Foul
- 43′SC Freiburg, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 48′SC Paderborn 07, yellow card:Foul
- 56′SC Freiburg, yellow card:Foul
- 59′SC Freiburg, yellow card:Foul
- 74′SC Freiburg, substitution:off
- 74′SC Freiburg, substitution:off
- 74′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 82′SC Freiburg, substitution:off
- 82′SC Freiburg, substitution:off
- 82′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 82′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 89′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 90+3′SC Paderborn 07, yellow card:Argument
- Full-time0 – 1
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SC Paderborn 07
SC Freiburg
Match report
Eggestein strike gives Freiburg win at Paderborn
SC Paderborn 07 fell 1-0 to SC Freiburg in a Bundesliga Regular Season - 2 fixture at the Home Deluxe Arena, with the visitors' early goal proving decisive across both halves. The result lifted Freiburg to the summit of the table on six points, while Paderborn remained down in 13th after collecting just one point from their opening two matches.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The only goal came in the 26th minute, when Maximilian Eggestein put Freiburg ahead to make it 0-1, a scoreline that held firm through half-time and beyond. Paderborn were unable to find a way back despite the setback, and no further goals followed as Freiburg saw out the remainder of the contest.
Paderborn had the greater share of possession, controlling the ball for 59 percent of the match and committing more fouls in their pursuit of an equaliser, but it was Freiburg who were sharper in front of goal, registering five shots on target from sixteen attempts compared to their hosts' three from fourteen. Both sides picked up three yellow cards apiece, with no dismissals on either side.
Eggestein scored the only goal of the match and finished with the highest rating on the pitch at 8.08, capping a productive afternoon for the Freiburg midfielder.
Despite Paderborn dominating possession at 59 percent, it was Freiburg who were more clinical, converting five of their sixteen shots on target.
SC Freiburg won 1–0 away against SC Paderborn 07 (half-time 0–1).
SC Paderborn 07 met SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Saturday, 5 September 2026, 13:30 UTC at Home Deluxe Arena. Referee: Max Burda.
Team pages: SC Paderborn 07 · SC Freiburg · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 26' Goal: Maximilian Eggestein — 0–1 · Watch Maximilian Eggestein's goal video (26')
Starting line-ups
SC Paderborn 07 (3-1-4-2)
SC Freiburg (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave SC Paderborn 07 23%, the draw 24%, SC Freiburg 53%. It finished SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC Freiburg.
SC Freiburg's rating gap outweighs SC Paderborn 07's home ground — SC Freiburg are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives SC Freiburg the lean. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why SC Freiburg at 53%?
SC Freiburg sit 214 points higher on our strength rating — 1689 to 1904. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge on the road won 51.9% of 6,066 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims SC Paderborn 07's column. Across 10,911 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 27–19–54.
Why only 53%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 53% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and SC Paderborn 07 at 23%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,073. The goals environment takes 2.0 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SC Freiburg average 6 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 214 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. SC Freiburg scored +0.84 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,827 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC Freiburg. Explore more on the SC Paderborn 07 and SC Freiburg team pages or the Bundesliga page.