1899 Hoffenheim vs 10.10.26 13:302 – 3Full Time
Hamburger SV — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Hamburger SV snatch late win at 1899 Hoffenheim after Muheim's stoppage-time goal
Hamburger SV won 3-2 at 1899 Hoffenheim in a Bundesliga Matchday 5 meeting at the Prezero Arena, scoring twice in the final eight minutes to overturn a deficit. The five-goal contest left the visitors eleventh in the table on six points, while Hoffenheim stayed seventeenth on three.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Yussuf Poulsen put the visitors ahead in the 12th minute. Hoffenheim levelled deep into first-half stoppage time, when Sebastiaan Bornauw turned the ball into his own net in the 45+6 minute to make it 1-1 at the interval. Bambasé Conté then gave the hosts the lead in the 53rd minute from a Fisnik Asllani assist.
Hoffenheim held that advantage until the 83rd minute, when Teremas Moffi equalised from a Miro Muheim delivery. Muheim then scored himself in the 90+4 minute to complete the turnaround and send Hamburger SV home with the points, a result that ended a run of four league and cup defeats for Hoffenheim in five matches.
Bambasé Conté scored Hoffenheim's second goal and earned the match's highest rating at 7.98. Miro Muheim was close behind on 7.97, having set up Moffi's equaliser and then scored the winner.
Hoffenheim dominated the ball with 64 per cent possession but still lost, as Hamburger SV made their fewer touches count.
Hamburger SV won 3–2 away against 1899 Hoffenheim (half-time 1–1).
1899 Hoffenheim met Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC at Prezero Arena. Referee: Harm Osmers. Attendance: 25,929.
Team pages: 1899 Hoffenheim · Hamburger SV · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 12' Goal: Yussuf Poulsen — 0–1
- 45+6' Goal (own goal): Sebastiaan Bornauw — 1–1
- 53' Goal: Bambasé Conté (assist: Fisnik Asllani) — 2–1
- 83' Goal: Terem Moffi (assist: Miro Muheim) — 2–2
- 90+4' Goal: Miro Muheim — 2–3 · Watch Miro Muheim's goal video (90+4')
Starting line-ups
1899 Hoffenheim (4-2-3-1)
Hamburger SV (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave 1899 Hoffenheim 50%, the draw 26%, Hamburger SV 24%. It finished 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV.
A slight rating edge to 1899 Hoffenheim, little else — 1899 Hoffenheim are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and that is most of 1899 Hoffenheim's 50%. The draw at 26% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why 1899 Hoffenheim at 50%?
1899 Hoffenheim sit 78 points higher on our strength rating — 1639 to 1561. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 10,378 such games.
Why only 50%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims 1899 Hoffenheim's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
1899 Hoffenheim have averaged 16 percentage points more possession than Hamburger SV in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. 1899 Hoffenheim have shed 71 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,577 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV. Explore more on the 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV team pages or the Bundesliga page.