SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBundesligaYouTubeMatch Events
- 13′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- Half-time
- 46′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 46′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 53′Hamburger SV, yellow card:
- 58′SC Paderborn 07, yellow card:
- 62′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 62′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 70′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 71′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 71′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- 79′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 87′Hamburger SV, yellow card:
- 88′SC Paderborn 07, goal:1–0assist
- 89′Hamburger SV, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
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SC Paderborn 07
Hamburger SV
Match report
Paderborn edge Hamburg with late Philippe goal at Home Deluxe Arena
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hamburger SV 1-0 in the Bundesliga on Matchday 7, Rayan Philippe scoring two minutes from time at Home Deluxe Arena. The goal, set up by Felix Götze in the 88th minute, ended a contest that had stayed goalless through a first half in which neither side found a way through.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The home side controlled most of the play, holding 62% of possession and having 16 shots to Hamburg's 9. Six of those efforts were on target, while the visitors managed only one, leaving their goalkeeper far busier than his counterpart. Paderborn also won six corners to three without being able to turn their pressure into a lead before the closing stages.
The result lifted Paderborn from 16th to 12th, with eight points from seven games. Hamburg stayed ahead of them in 10th on nine points, having begun the day in ninth. Paderborn next play VfB Stuttgart at home in the DFB Pokal on Wednesday 28 October, a day after Hamburg host Eintracht Frankfurt in the same competition.
Santiago Castañeda earned the highest rating of any player, 7.77, as part of a Paderborn display that gave Hamburg little room in midfield. Raphael Obermair (7.59) and Tjark Scheller (7.58) were also among the top-rated performers.
Paderborn put six of their 16 shots on target, while Hamburger SV managed just one from their nine attempts.
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hamburger SV 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
SC Paderborn 07 met Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC at Home Deluxe Arena. Referee: Martin Petersen. Attendance: 15,000.
Team pages: SC Paderborn 07 · Hamburger SV · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 88' Goal: Rayan Philippe (assist: Felix Götze) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
SC Paderborn 07 (3-5-2)
Hamburger SV (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave SC Paderborn 07 43%, the draw 28%, Hamburger SV 29%. It finished SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV.
Home advantage and possession edge Paderborn ahead — Our strength rating has Hamburger SV 50 points higher, but the usual home advantage plus Paderborn's grip on the ball, 50 to 42 in possession in recent games, gives Paderborn a slight lean at 43% to 29%. The draw sits at 28%, a touch under its usual 29.1% for this gap, nudged down by that ball control and the 2.9-goal average in each side's recent games.
Why SC Paderborn 07 at 43%?
Home ground, against the rating. Hamburger SV sit 50 points higher on our strength rating — 1594 to 1544. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 11,084 such games. SC Paderborn 07 hold 8 more possession points (50 to 42 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.3% of 5,590 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 43%?
Because Hamburger SV are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 28% and Hamburger SV at 29%.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,159.
What did we measure but not count?
SC Paderborn 07 come into this after a busy window — 13 arrivals, 7 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Hamburger SV have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV. Explore more on the SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV team pages or the Bundesliga page.